1k to 100k

[El OchoCinco]

Least active = low volatility = low premiums

That is not something you need research to discover really. But it does not mean it has a better chance of making money. Higher vol = more active = higher premiums but the stock has potential for greater moves.

I do not think you have a better chance at profits simply looking at lower vol stocks. The premeiums are cheaper and the potential for big sudden move and IV expansion is there but no greater odds of it happening.

 

[cnms2]

This leads to the continuous argument about premium vs. probability, expectancy, flat tails, black swans, Taleb ...

There's no free lunch: to make money you must be right in your time bound price and / or implied volatility forecast.

On GILD rsethura1 was right in his price forecast and got payed for it.

 

[pattersb]

any suggestions as to whether I should close out
20 Apr puts of CECO, I bougth them at .60 cents, underlying was at 41.60.

I was hoping to hit 37.60

 

[trading_time]

what strike price?

Quote from pattersb:

any suggestions as to whether I should close out
20 Apr puts of CECO, I bougth them at .60 cents, underlying was at 41.60.

I was hoping to hit 37.60

 

[pattersb]

40, duh ... its been treading water at 38 for an unusual amount of time ...

(duh ... self-criticism .. not directed at you)

 

[trading_time]

Stock is on support in my opinion, hence settling around 38ish

Your sitting on a fat profit, are you willing to risk that to squeeze out a few more pennies?

Quote from pattersb:

40, duh ... its been treading water at 38 for an unusual amount of time ...

(duh ... self-criticism .. not directed at you)

 

[pattersb]

.... i put the probability of a new low tomorrow at 80% ...

but you're right, I'm selling ... I need a win.

Im a beginner, (and in the red, not too badly) . I think I've finally figured it out though!

 

[trading_time]

Maybe you could manage the trade by selling half? That way you would be protected from a loss yet still holding some to squeeze out more?

Just a thought…..

Quote from pattersb:

.... i put the probability of a new low tomorrow at 80% ...

but you're right, I'm selling ... I need a win.

Im a beginner, (and in the red, not too badly) . I think I've finally figured it out though!

 

[pattersb]

Good thought, I'll probably close it all out today. It's started up almost every day. Don't want to agonize on the last trade day.

 

[El OchoCinco]

I put it closer to 50/50 lol..

Quote from pattersb:

.... i put the probability of a new low tomorrow at 80% ...

but you're right, I'm selling ... I need a win.

Im a beginner, (and in the red, not too badly) . I think I've finally figured it out though!