1930 Rally ended on April 16

Excellent summary of the markets; your assessment is dead on target.

Quote from Stok:

Until the TARP is done and easy $ is done, then you short. It is ironic that the Fed's (aka SEC....all the same) went after GS after tax day, and it will weigh on the market...but we will rebound a bit. This is a liquidity driven event with cheap $'s and printing of money which may never stop (the printing). More $'s to chase asset's = higher prices. Banks are not lending, they are putting their money to work in the equity and bond markets...i.e....the rally. All about the spread.

So, when TARP winds down and rates go up....that is when YOU SHORT the equity markets. Equity markets are still in bull mode until then. And now, the best play is to short the 30-yr (ZB). Fed's can "try" to control the short end of the curve, but they have no control on the long end.

Other play is to short the EUR/NOK. Will play out nice.
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Quote from freewilly:

Well, the reason why this rally is longer is because FED is working much harder than in 1929. They printed too much money and got more heavily involved. However, the problem is the more FED intervene the market, the more distorted the market will be, and eventually leads to a much bigger disaster.
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So True.
 
There's a lot of "first mouses" on this forum....

Yesterday did a lot of technical damage, for sure, but from here to talk about the trend being over and the start of a downtrend????Come on guys....

back in july, october and february everyone was already calling market tops and here we are....ready to call another top because of NEWS????

120 is a big ass level for the SPY and it could take a bit for everyone to digest the news and see where we go from here....

It's earnings season, and that may be a catalyst for further movement...


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Quote from Johan:

The rally of 1930 ended on April 16. I don't know much about that time, because i wasn't even born yet. But are the odds of another repeat like that? This Friday, this rally can be over, if it follow the 1930. What do you guys think?
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Just to make sure that you don't miss the next 80 year rally, buy some at the money 2090 calls !!

:D
 
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