1929 vs 1987 vs 2018

[Spooz Top 2]

Making an argument for the future is kind of meaningless -- and also basically just gambling.
People will always just roll their eyes as you speak about your crystal ball.

And besides, and more importantly, it's only fun and sexy talking about your current and past trades that have a realized gain/loss.

More narrow mindedness from Troglodyte #2... It`s called a game of observation & speculation... one can always tell a losing/ frustrated investor/ speculator by their narrow minded, dismissive responses of others that don`t share their small mindset.

 

[algofy]

Typical loser mentality .. the guy took the time to post an logical observation & that`s your best rebuttal? I guess PTJ holding the 29 template up to 87 chart was useless as well?

What are you so sore about? Btw the 90s called, they want the hair back.

 

[Spooz Top 2]

That`s it ?... Hair? Stale, weak one liners.. irrelevant to trading?

Once upon a time, this was a great site, chock full of quality posters that shared ideas, charts, set ups, P&L`s etc... Now we have the bitter bitch boys that have blown up more times than they can count that show up to bellyache, troll & provoke... They are the easy marks as their "tells" are obvious.

 

[davidhelms]

There was a saying often attributed to Mark Twain that I feel is very appicable.

"History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes".

It's been a long time since I studied history, but I believe the Great Depression was worsened due to trading wars and fundamental errors in the monetary policy. There seem to be parallels.

 

[tommcginnis]

This crash shape is currently intact.

I project 30% or more with some top 10 declining days by percentage, but I have no means to estimate that with total precision.

To get us back to the original thought --
Yes, the "shape" is currently 'intact' -- do you account that anything besides a curious coincident?

You also 'project' a 30% drop and some top-10 days... So, 30% of what?? Top-10 of what??


It would help to have a bit more basis -- so far this thread has seemed a Rorschach at which posters are attributing what their particular views suggest....

 

[Error Correction Funder]

To get us back to the original thought --
Yes, the "shape" is currently 'intact' -- do you account that anything besides a curious coincident?

You also 'project' a 30% drop and some top-10 days... So, 30% of what?? Top-10 of what??


It would help to have a bit more basis -- so far this thread has seemed a Rorschach at which posters are attributing what their particular views suggest....

Crashes of this type have the topping pattern in this popular graph:

I have discovered indicators that can predict this crash type.

30% or more from top to bottom.

Top 10 percentage losses. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_...Industrial_Average#Largest_percentage_changes

Assuming that this is a crash of this type, the daily percentage changes so far have been worse than 1987 and even worse in some ways than 1929. On this basis, this crash has a lot of potential, and calling the bottom will be difficult. I just yesterday amended my strategy for calling the bottom by that reason.

Posting less details seems to generate more discussion.

 

[tommcginnis]

Posting less details seems to generate more discussion

Well put!!

 

[KevinD]

Typical loser mentality .. the guy took the time to post an logical observation & that`s your best rebuttal? I guess PTJ holding the 29 template up to 87 chart was useless as well?

I don't think this clown even understands the similarities between 87 and now, but then again he is a jock rider.

 

[KevinD]

Crashes of this type have the topping pattern in this popular graph:

I have discovered indicators that can predict this crash type.

30% or more from top to bottom.

Top 10 percentage losses. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_...Industrial_Average#Largest_percentage_changes

Assuming that this is a crash of this type, the daily percentage changes so far have been worse than 1987 and even worse in some ways than 1929. On this basis, this crash has a lot of potential, and calling the bottom will be difficult. I just yesterday amended my strategy for calling the bottom by that reason.

Posting less details seems to generate more discussion.

The bigger risk, IMO, is the tech sector due to the fact that so many of the heavily weighted stocks are in extended parabola's. Granted, the Dow Industrials has its share, but Nasdaq could just bring a percentage of those stocks back into their longer term averages and crush that index.

 

[samuel11]

Once the decline ended, S&P 500 was higher 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-months later 100% of the time

Sorry if I understand incorrectly, but is that saying that once the bottom is identified, the following return is positive? IOW, water is wet?