1929 vs 1987 vs 2018

[S2007S]

Guys, it's not that hard.

"Buy" below 2400.
BIG "Buy" below 2300.
ALL-IN "Buy" below 2200.

See?

I would call that drop below 2200 meaningless, that's nothing like 1987 or 1928 or 2008-2009. Even tbouth is looks comparable to those lines on the chart.

 

[tommcginnis]

Right now, there is an imposed similarity between between '29, '87, and '08, in the OP's post. If you subscribe to the similarities (which the OP did not even endorse??), the implication is clear. "YMMV."

The last time I looked at The Great Depression in depth, what got glued into my brain was that there was not *one* drop, but 3 -- being '29, a near-recovery, then '30, and then '31. Things basically stayed flat until the early build-up to WWII ('37'38'39, when IBM and Remington stopped making sewing machines and type-writers, and started making M1 Garands and Mosin-Nagants (for the damn Ruskies...! Big money collectors' items now.)..And ships out the Wazoo...

Ooops: the point is, that the OP's graph (for 'journalistic purposes'...) does not show the end of The Depression. Does that make the graph any less interesting?

No.

 

[monkeyc]

The Y axes were arbitrarily chosen to make the graphs look identical. The X axis makes no sense.

In a nutshell, these comparison graphs are worthless. You can make them tell any story you want simply by changing the scale of the axes.

 

[Saltynuts]

Whoa, sorry guys, when I said looks like a buying opportunity based on that chart I was looking on my phone and didn't see the 2018 ended only about a third of the way down the big drop. Definitely not a bullish looking comparison!

 

[samuel11]

Whoa, sorry guys, when I said looks like a buying opportunity based on that chart I was looking on my phone and didn't see the 2018 ended only about a third of the way down the big drop. Definitely not a bullish looking comparison!

Too late, you have been filled

 

[Saltynuts]

Hahaha!

 

[Saltynuts]

Starting to buy below 2400 and going all in around 2200 might be a bit premature.

Based on 1987, the low would be around 1900
Based on 1929, the low would be around 400 (the OP chart doesn't show the final 1932 low)

Based on the last 2 bear markets, 2002 and 2008, the low would be between 1400 and 1600.

August 1987 to December 1987
S&P 500 high: 337.89
Low: 221.24
Loss: 33.5 percent
Duration: 3 months

September 1929 to June 1932
S&P 500 high: 31.86
Low: 4.4
Loss: 86.1 percent
Duration: 34 months

VERY interesting post southall, thanks! Good lord that '29 drop was BRUTAL!

 

[lawrence-lugar]

Making an argument for the future is kind of meaningless -- and also basically just gambling.
People will always just roll their eyes as you speak about your crystal ball.

And besides, and more importantly, it's only fun and sexy talking about your current and past trades that have a realized gain/loss.

 

[Spooz Top 2]

87 and 29 have nothing to do with 2018.

Typical loser mentality .. the guy took the time to post an logical observation & that`s your best rebuttal? I guess PTJ holding the 29 template up to 87 chart was useless as well?

 

[sss12]

These axis are irrelevant as shown. Implication are therefore the same.