We WILL hit 12.5% minimum unemployment, and once that firewall is breached, things could very easily spin out of control and hit the 15% to 20% official unemployment range.
Hell, we're at 18%+ now, if you look at the real numbers.
Look at www.ShadowStats.com .You will see measure are already in the teens when you count people who unemployment already ran out and those who are underemployed.
I agree with the previous poster on U6. When you add the underemployed, you get a much higher figure. U6 is a better gauge of financial stress as well because the lifestyle they have been accustomed to may not be maintainable.