150k bitcoin predicted by lee,,..1 billion by others!!

[The_Krakenite]

I am still sticking to my rule of diversification. Though, I definitely would not wish to purchase hard assets like a second house. You're just giving it away to house squatters if you do that in the Western world.

Eventually, the same liberal governments are going to try to come after YOUR bitcoin as well. The main reason to self-custody right there. Just look at what happened to people in shit-hole countries like Nigeria.

 

[engineering]

What's the value of the TCP/IP protocol to someone who doesn't have an internet connection? Zero. It can't be used for anything, to them. But this protocol right now powers the entire modern world. You don't think of it like its something you should have in your pocket, but the value is monumental.

Not really. There were and are other network protocols. If suddenly we found out TCP/IP was patent encumbered and cost $50k a seat people would switch to something else. Similar to GIF vs PNG.

Bitcoin has value because of the network effect

This piece I will agree with.
I believe the is some value associated with traffic volume and size of user base.
I think it's a small,short term value but its there... It just has no relationship to Bitcoin s current price. That's all FOMO and dreams of getting rich.

Its pretty simple. If you were Russia, would you prefer to have had $300B in USD that the US government froze, of would you prefer to have had it in Bitcoin?

In the real world people don't sit on $300 billion in currency unless for some reason the need a ridiculous foreign currency reserve.
This is one of the oft repeated misapprehensions I see in the Bitcoin crowd. They're quick to point out inflation and the supposed immunity of Bitcoin from it, but they don't understand that people take their investable cash and buy things even if those things are just bonds.

There many options to try and protect oneself from inflation in the traditional sense. Ideally you want something well correlated to you favorite inflation metric. Bitcoin doesn't do that. Don't take my word. Show us you favorite metric and Bitcoin's price on a 5 year percentage change chart.

And that's just the extremely simplistic concept of inflation only considering money printing and ignoring:
1) govt purchases crowding out culture purchases in the marketplace
2) expected future taxes

 

[engineering]

lots of good being a Buffett disciple will do to your performance as degen investors on high-tech, high-growth will outperform you

Until they lose it all. Like Livermore.

Middle to upper-middle class wealth is being decimated or maybe rather, distributed to the lower end and the high end of the scale

Partly true. But what's more true is that if you doubled most Americans income, they would immediately figure out ways to spend it.

which begs the question why would you focus your attention criticizing bitcoin instead of perhaps trying to figure out how to increase your portfolio performance to be on par with the stock market performance?

It's a learning activity. I knew a bit about bubbles before Bitcoin was being treated as an "investment". Now I know twice as much.
Arguing a viewpoint is useful. You learn things about both sides

 

[johnarb]

Until they lose it all. Like Livermore.

True, but perhaps I painted a bit extreme, I was talking more like magnificent 7, or pick and choose, Senator backed trade NVDA, a built-in safety net through Buffett-coerced buyback AAPL, MSFT or AMZN or META or GOOG

Impossible to lose them all unless everything has crashed, i.e. WW3,

It's a learning activity. I knew a bit about bubbles before Bitcoin was being treated as an "investment". Now I know twice as much.
Arguing a viewpoint is useful. You learn things about both sides

Anyway, as things go and situations change, we have to account for risk-management

I've been running through many scenarios in my head for the after-close-out of a profitable trade (mstr call options),

and lo and behold, I've come to the conclusion that the proper way is to hold cash (MM) and to reduce counterparty risk, transfer some to another brokerage and buy BIL

Risk of ruin + tax liabilities > inflation concerns/fiat debasement

I have played with the scenario of using btc as cash-equivalent, but see above

I have toyed with the idea of doing CC on mstr 500 points ootm 1 mo exp and if called away short itm puts for extra "passive" income given the huge mstr vol premia, but see above

So yea, wrt your opposing viewpoint, I become value investor when threatened with risks

But only partly on the tradfi portion of my investing life... Bitcoin is what I consider the least riskiest asset in the whole investment universe and positioned for that as well

 

[johnarb]

There many options to try and protect oneself from inflation in the traditional sense. Ideally you want something well correlated to you favorite inflation metric. Bitcoin doesn't do that. Don't take my word. Show us you favorite metric and Bitcoin's price on a 5 year percentage change chart.

It seems we do have the data for it

https://www.pricedinbitcoin21.com/landing


Incidentally, bitcoin volatility has been cited as a risk factor, but volatility by itself is not everything, as a value investor, you heard of sharpe-ratio

Can you please calculate the sharpe-ratio of bitcoin in 1yr, 3yr, 5yr and 10yr timeframe, you can pick today's date, or 12/31 or 1/1? [I don't know how to calculate it, myself, but I'm guessing you do]

 

[S2007S]

You got it! They will print much more than they did in 2008 and Covid combined, I think there was a paper published by Blackrock or GS back in 2018 outlining the situation

Just like the bulls were crazy to go against the monetary tightening when Powell declared war on inflation, it seems to the bears such as yourself will be making the same mistake during this loose monetary environment


Did you add to your short on mstr at $1600? I'd urge for you to wait until 5/31 for a sell the news after being added to the MSCI world index


View attachment 340605

Have not added yet. Will do so soon......I'll get my cost average to around-1400- $1500 on the short once I add my next short

 

[johnarb]

Have not added yet. Will do so soon......I'll get my cost average to around-1400- $1500 on the short once I add my next short

Good luck

Disclaimer: not financial advice, everything is for entertainment purposes only, and I'm not an options expert

Have you considered going short mstr call options instead of straight out shorting the shares? I think you're throwing away the high volatility premiums if you're shorting mstr shares directly

Some preliminary info:

1. You can cover (close out) your short call options at any time before expiration, for a m2m profit or loss
2. On expiration day, if the call options are in-the-money, you can lock in your mstr price at how many shares you wish (partial to full) so that on the Saturday after expiration, your risks are defined over the weekend

Scenario:

Sell to open qty=2 call options mstr 5/31 1650 for $100 collect $20k credit in your account

If it goes your way between now and next Friday, buy to close, you're flat, locked in profit, if you hold until expiration, and price of mstr is above $1650, you'll be short 200 shares with a cost-basis of $1550/share

Anyway, in a hurry but I think there's some nuances, where you can go long 100-200 shares on expiration day if it looks like the call options will expire in the money

 

[johnarb]

if you hold until expiration, and price of mstr is above $1650, you'll be short 200 shares with a cost-basis of $1550/share

Options mistake,

* cost-basis $1750/share

 

[johnarb]

True, but perhaps I painted a bit extreme, I was talking more like magnificent 7, or pick and choose, Senator backed trade NVDA,

image credit to @northmantrader on Twitter

 

[engineering]

It seems we do have the data for it

https://www.pricedinbitcoin21.com/landing


Incidentally, bitcoin volatility has been cited as a risk factor, but volatility by itself is not everything, as a value investor, you heard of sharpe-ratio

Can you please calculate the sharpe-ratio of bitcoin in 1yr, 3yr, 5yr and 10yr timeframe, you can pick today's date, or 12/31 or 1/1? [I don't know how to calculate it, myself, but I'm guessing you do]

This covers it quite well.
https://blog.amberdata.io/bitcoin-sharpe-ratio-the-risk-and-reward-of-investing-in-cryptocurrencies

I'm not a huge fan of a one simple ratio.
I always check things like price to book before buying.

Bitcoins p/b ratio and p/e ratio of infinity are not things that meet my purchase criteria.