120-pt Spike in EUR/USD

Quote from Lon Eagle:

Reasons to buy the Euro:

ECB said rates going to 3.50%
Soft US CPI
Break of key technical resistance including range top
US renewed attack on Iraq
US eurodollar interest rate futures off 10 ticks, whilst EURIBOR pretty flat

Reasons to sell Euro:

Um, its gone up........

Can't see any reason why anyone can justify a sale of Euros here. Not saying it can't or wont happen but the only reason people seem to be selling it are because it has gone up! Yet look at lindicators like the RSI, it certainly isnt hugely overbought. It has been in a range for ages and it is just possible this break out could be the start of an explosive move up.

If it falls back below 1.2075/90 then that is a different story and would probably be looking to trade from the short side again.

(If you are desperate to sell Euros here perhaps look at eur/£. 6930 was the peak earlier in the week and we havent really broken this level yesterday/today despite the euro/dollar rally. The UK economy is picking up again, esp house prices, and it looks like Vodaphone could announce the sale of its Japanese arm for £40bn in the next few days. The US part could also be sold off.)
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Hey, Lon, thanks for posting.

Another reason to short EUR/USD is, euro has a funny habit of suddenly vaporizing mid-stream for no apparent reason. Weakening to the level of warm currency puke.

And, USD can come roaring back 100s of points at any time based on nothing but mere panic and dread. Burning fanciful euro longs down to the ground in the process.

'Course, I'm trading it both long and short so, I've got it covered both ways. :D

Good luck,

Ex
 
Quote from Exchanges:

'Course, I'm trading it both long and short so, I've got it covered both ways. :D
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Same timeframe, same position size, real money?

How will you know when to close one and when to keep one? Unless you're banking on some range-bound activity, one of those positions is going to begin to smell funny, no?
 
Quote from JangoFolly:

Same timeframe, same position size, real money?

How will you know when to close one and when to keep one? Unless you're banking on some range-bound activity, one of those positions is going to begin to smell funny, no?
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Real money. Traded at the same time. Not sure I'm banking on anything in this market. :D

I do think we're seeing pressure from the Iraq/Iran situation. It's influencing the market.

Ex
1.2190
 
Quote from Exchanges:

Real money. Traded at the same time. Not sure I'm banking on anything in this market. :D

I do think we're seeing pressure from the Iraq/Iran situation. It's influencing the market.

Ex
1.2190
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Please let us know how they both turn out.


Regards,
 
Quote from Ebo:

Some of us actually trade for a living.
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Good thing this board is not restricted to only those who do.

There wouldn't be anyone left to post! :D

x
 
Quote from JangoFolly:

Please let us know how they both turn out.

Regards,
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Well, one thing I can tell you right now.

I smell a currency storm about to hit.

Reasons:

We have not seen the backlash to Operation Swarmer yet. And I suspect there will be a major backlash (read insurgent guerrillas will probably not take it laying down).

Iran and the US are firmly squared off.

A death squad just showed up in IRAN and smoked 21 people -

National police chief Gen. Esmaeil Ahmadi Moghaddam accused U.S. and British intelligence of being behind the attack on Thursday night, the official Iranian news agency reported.

"It appears that a plan to create instability and religious hatred, similar to the bombing of the Shiite shrine in Samarra (in Iraq), is being pursued here," IRNA quoted Moghaddam as saying." Source

Panic, fear, mania and dread are right around the corner in the forex among those who trade for a living, that may cause technicals to implode the same way they did the last quarter of 2004, furthering the crisis.

x
 
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