12:12PM, Who is Shorting NDX?

[dipper17]

Quote from riskfreetrading:

OC:

My market calls are made specific in the body of the threads, not in their titles. Re-read them. If you understand a title as a market call, that is your problem with understanding not with my writing.

If some writing is not specific, then it should not be used as a market call no matter what the result is afterwards. I think you should read on your own, and not read what others wrote about my writings to reach a conclusion.

There is one place where I could post from some of what I do to share with others more specific. That is in the EUR/JPY thread in currency area. Check it up.

You run the same gambit day after day your act is getting old.

On the one hand in the above quote from this thread you claim your market calls are not in the title of the thread but made SPECIFIC in the body of the thread.

Yet today your market call was hidden neatly in a totally different thread and was not anywhere near specific.

Ohhh “the market looks weak” ohh the Detroit Red Wings look strong. Are the Red Wings going to win ? Did you bet they would win and if so what kind of bet did you make on the series?


Saying the market looks one way or the other and burying it in another thread is not all that difficult. If it turns out your right then you can refer people to that thread if not you just leave it buried and hope no one finds it.


As usual you made no real specific call and vague grasp at market direction you did make was cowardly buried in another thread.

 

[xflat2186]

Quote from riskfreetrading:

Shortie:

It has multiple meanings. Here some some:

1. Timing the market is not only about price, but time (more important).
2. Time-stamps for the call, and in relation to which index, and how it can played.

It could have been posted as a new thread with a title such as
"9:56:58AM, May 07, Who is Shorting NDX VIA QQQQ, This is market call", or simply as usual...


PS: There are other meaning. I might PM you about it.

Show us a single post where you specifically said you're getting short in any way shape or form BEFORE the markets moved down.

Saying "the market is weak" or "the market looks weak" is not saying you're short in the QQQQ or other NDX related product.

The more BS you post here the deeper the hole you dig for yourself.

Remember only people lie

 

[commiebat]

Quote from xflat2186:

Remember only people lie

I think he meant "other people".

And if he says he doesn't lie, we should believe him. After all, would a guy who doesn't lie ever lie?

 

[riskfreetrading]

Dear readers:

Below is the market call for today posted in Rennick Out. By the time of this posting you should be able to have a 10 points NDX in the bag. Depending on your position, you may apply the POEM.

Quote from riskfreetrading:

1:53PM: go short with NDX at 1979.

God bless riskfreetrading and his good readers, and increase the number of paparrazzis following him in all threads.

 

[commiebat]

Quote from xflat2186:

He is adept a making ambiguous statements and sprinkling them in other threads in case they end up fitting the days market action.

Check your mail tomorrow. Easiest coke you've ever won.

 

[xflat2186]

Was there a trade somewhere??? Or was this yet another 50/50 shot burried in another thread with NO indication of a trade?
Do yaa think ole risky would have mentioned it here had it not worked out? LOL Any chance he has another bullish call hidden in a different thread just incase the market rallied?


ROTFLMAO

 

[trendo]

riskfreetrading,

How about indicating how you will manage the trade? At the very least, tell us your stop loss at the time you make your call. Calling a trade to the minute or even the exact millisecond is still a 50/50 prediction of general market direction. BFD

 

[riskfreetrading]

Trendo:

I think I raised (either in this thread or the previous one) the queston of probabilities. There are multiple type of questions:

1. The probability that the next bar will be up or down. That is the question you answer in your post. That probability is 50/50, independent of the bar length (1 minute, 5 minute, whatever) using a given definition of price (close price, for instance as long as it is consistent among bars).

2. The probability that a given price X will be the maximum of price a period of time T (for instance 390 minutes which is the duration of a cash session).

I have not received an answer from others yet to the question 2 or to question 3. I leave it open for the moment. If you assume independence of prices across time, then one can calculate the distribution of that probability.

If you split a day in different bar sizes, you will notice that this probability depend of the size of bars (or equivalently their number).

3. The probability that a price at a given time is the maximum price. This probability is the smallest of the three above probabilities in this post.

My calls fall within question number 3, as I do not decide on price but on the time and its associated price as the maximum of the day. In other words, I am interested (even if I were to fail) in determining the maximum at the right time and right price.

I think if you give further thinking to the above (and some people touched on this in the other threads) you would realize the huge difference between 2. and 3. on one hand, and 1. on the other.

Furthermore, the second point you would realize is that there is a difference between questions 2. and 3, and that one is much harder than the other.

Once you work out the probabilities for the above using the 1-minute time frame (which the time increment I used in my market calls), you would realize that market calls vary a lot. You should also be able (based just on theoretical probabilities) which of the market call types could be easily done with help of luck or with help of skill/tools/knowledge/etc.

I would also ask my theoetical chances to call a top at a given time using the 1-minute price closes in one given day, and in multiple days? I think if someone can provide this probability, they might view things from other perspectives.

There are other points related to your note and my current post. I wanted to lay some ground for some fundamental questions.

 

[dipper17]

How did your trades in this one work out?

 

[riskfreetrading]

Quote from dipper17:

How did your trades in this one work out?

This guy posted at 3:09PM. Since he is bagholder, I will not be surprised if the NDX tops today at exactly 3:09PM. Keep watching, This is an important point. at 3:09PM NDX was at 2005.