100% winning rate of 10000 deals in 100 days

A 100% win rate only attracts newbies. For the more experienced traders it is much more about the overall drawdown within any trade and within all trades. So he should post the max intraday and intratrade drawdowns too, if he wants to be serious. Because it is easy to have multiple orders with a low profit target and no kind of stoploss to be filled at 100% win rate. Some years ago I had a similar trading system developed, but is about the drawdowns that occur in between which makes the music and not the win rate only! He should post his equity curve not on closed trades but over a time scale with full intraday/intra the trades drawdown too!

The problem with those extra high win rate systems is, that you can do this only when you right with the overall trend of the underlying instrument (I know this for sure because I also had similar trading systems developed some years ago). If that main trend changes where the strategy is built on, then this will have problems causing many open huge drawdown trades which will wipe out the whole account. So as long as the main overall trend as time frame for this designed trading system does not change it can work, but if the trend changes the account is gone. That why he should post any open drawdowns in his trades too.

I also know how to get those trading systems with that high win rate. You only need to optimize parameters with a fitness curve which minimze drawdowns BUT on closed trades. But the correct optimization would be minimze drawdowns on full intraday/intra trades drawdowns. Then you usually do not get those 100% win rate systems anymore. I know this for sure because I also made the same mistake long time ago when designing (algo/systematic) trading systems.
 
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TrAndy2022 said:
A 100% win rate only attracts newbies. For the more experienced traders it is much more about the overall drawdown within any trade and within all trades. So he should post the max intraday and intratrade drawdowns too, if he wants to be serious. Because it is easy to have multiple orders with a low profit target and no kind of stoploss to be filled at 100% win rate. Some years ago I had a similar trading system developed, but is about the drawdowns that occur in between which makes the music and not the win rate only! He should post his equity curve not on closed trades but over a time scale with full intraday/intra the trades drawdown too!

The problem with those extra high win rate systems is, that you can do this only when you right with the overall trend of the underlying instrument (I know this for sure because I also had similar trading systems developed some years ago). If that main trend changes where the strategy is built on, then this will have problems causing many open huge drawdown trades which will wipe out the whole account. So as long as the main overall trend as time frame for this designed trading system does not change it can work, but if the trend changes the account is gone. That why he should post any open drawdowns in his trades too.

I also know how to get those trading systems with that high win rate. You only need to optimize parameters with a fitness curve which minimze drawdowns BUT on closed trades. But the correct optimization would be minimze drawdowns on full intraday/intra trades drawdowns. Then you usually do not get those 100% win rate systems anymore. I know this for sure because I also made the same mistake long time ago when designing (algo/systematic) trading systems.
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You are right. Therefore, I have repeatedly stressed that risk control management and discipline compliance are the core keys.:finger:
 
Hardison said:
It is easy to achieve 100% success rate. The difficulty is to keep 10000, 100000 and 1 million.:finger:
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No you are not right. You should listen also to other traders who have made that experience already what you are doing. It is not a problem to create many trades with 100% win rate. It does not matter whether it is 1000, or 100000 trades in a row. Because I created something similar over multiple markets with around 500 trades per day here. So 10000 trades in a row would be only 20 trading days (for me). The only real problem is the overall trend stability, and that can change over time. So the longer it takes the less the chance that this will be successful. While it is possible to do this in 100 trading days, it will be nearly impossible to do this 1000 trading days, even 300 trading days it is almost certain that it will suffer very serious and high drawdowns, which then does not make or look it any attractive anymore to keep trading this. So the only thing what matters is time. When the overall trend changes where this strategy is built on....beware. (That is why I also built equity curve trailing stops on that kind (a long time ago), but in the end it does not help, because the overall trend decides everything.)
 
TrAndy2022 said:
No you are not right. You should listen also to other traders who have made that experience already what you are doing. It is not a problem to create many trades with 100% win rate. It does not matter whether it is 1000, or 100000 trades in a row. Because I created something similar over multiple markets with around 500 trades per day here. So 10000 trades in a row would be only 20 trading days (for me). The only real problem is the overall trend stability, and that can change over time. So the longer it takes the less the chance that this will be successful. While it is possible to do this in 100 trading days, it will be nearly impossible to do this 1000 trading days, even 300 trading days it is almost certain that it will suffer very serious and high drawdowns, which then does not make or look it any attractive anymore to keep trading this. So the only thing what matters is time. When the overall trend changes where this strategy is built on....beware. (That is why I also built equity curve trailing stops on that kind (a long time ago), but in the end it does not help, because the overall trend decides everything.)
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Risk control management and strict observance of discipline are the core. You may not have noticed the key points I want to express.:sneaky:
 
Hardison said:
Risk control management and strict observance of discipline are the core. You may not have noticed the key points I want to express.:sneaky:
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Just wanted to help. Any reoptimizing and multiple timeframes also do not help, when the overall trend changes where the strategy is built on. Just in case you might said you rely on this. But if you do no tell what do you mean exactly with risk control management and strict observance of discipline, I cannot help more.
 
Rams Fan said:
When accused of a crime, the burden of proof is on the state, i.e. the one making the accusation of wrong-doing. That is how rational thinking works lol

When accused of fraud on an internet bulletin board, the burden of proof is on the one leveling the accusation.
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You got all wrong here.
The burden of proof is on the one claiming that the situation happened, not on the one leveling the accusation. You can accuse someone that something happened, but you also accuse that nothing happened.

In our case, the OP is claiming something. So it's his responsibility to prove the situation happened, not to the one claiming the contrary (cause like you said, you cannot prove that something didn't happen).
 
rb7 said:
The burden of proof is on the one claiming that the situation happened, not on the one leveling the accusation.
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Thank goodness you're not in charge of the American criminal justice system. You would turn "innocent until proven guilty" on it's head!

The OP is presenting his results. He has stated several times he will provide to the forum the excel spreadsheet of all orders and transactions after he posts all the screen shots. Yet here we have a case where many are calling bullshit before the OP himself has had the opportunity to present his case as he sees fit.

You want to call him a fraud, then YOU have to prove it. Thankfully, if a prosecutor accuses you of financial fraud, the burden of proof is on the prosecutor to prove you are a fraud. It is not incumbent upon you to prove yourself NOT a fraud.

So, wait until the OP presents whatever it is he intends to present, and then, if you feel he is a fraud, make your case based on the facts.
 
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