Very good post Thunderdog. Your thinking makes perfect sense to me.
Quote from Thunderdog:
I am impressed, as always, with the lucidity and thoroughness of your analysis. And while I agree with most of your analysis, I do not agree with all of your conclusions.
I imagine that this discrepancy in conclusion is attributed to the point you outlined in your second to last paragraph. I think that thoughtful people approach the markets from their understanding of, and experience with, the markets and what they believe to be their strengths in exploiting those markets. It also comes down to the perception of risk and the stomach for it. In my case, I have found that I am much better at calling (and leveraging) very short term movement and riding it than I am at calling longer term moves with confidence. And where longer term moves are concerned, I personally (and probably inappropriately) view confidence as complacency. And I act in accordance with my beliefs and personal experience.
We are all the product of our past, at least in part. I started trading the markets from a position/swing trading perspective and ended net negative. I remember well the sleepless nights of prices moving against me while I tried to be "confident" in the "bigger picture." Perhaps if I had known then what I know now it might have been different. Perhaps if I had started as a complete greenhorn trading intraday and had gotten burned badly, I might have been more receptive to holding on longer term today. Who knows? I am aware of my bias, but despite my introspection, it remains. This is how I see the world. And while I am now reasonably confident in trading the markets that I participate in, I regard the market as a big and somewhat unruly dog that is best kept on a fairly tight leash. Sleep is important to me, and while I like money as much as the next guy, I also value quality of life (as I define it for myself). Perhaps one day, I will look outside of myself and have an epiphany that will give me a completely altered view of the world and the markets. But until that time, this is my working model. And while I may not look to specifically make x% per day, it is nevertheless the sum of daily performance that results in annual performance.
At this point, I don't know if my post just rambles or if it makes some sense to anyone. I am just too tired to review and amend it if necessary. So, I will just press "Submit Reply" and hope for the best...
