100% math, good or bad?

S

StockBagger

I have been in and out of the markets the past few years. Even when I have been out, I have still dedicated a lot of time and effort into figuring trading out.

I started to use strictly 100% math to see if I could come up with something and it seems like I have.

I have backtested the dow 30 stocks and SPY from the beginning of the year and have done quite well.

My system is 100% mechanical. I short & long stocks. The entry is the opening price (NYSE stocks & SPY only) and the exit is the closing price (MOC).

Would you need more backtesting before you went live?

Just curious as to peoples thoughts....
 
Quote from StockBagger:

I have been in and out of the markets the past few years. Even when I have been out, I have still dedicated a lot of time and effort into figuring trading out.

I started to use strictly 100% math to see if I could come up with something and it seems like I have.

I have backtested the dow 30 stocks and SPY from the beginning of the year and have done quite well.

My system is 100% mechanical. I short & long stocks. The entry is the opening price (NYSE stocks & SPY only) and the exit is the closing price (MOC).

Would you need more backtesting before you went live?

Just curious as to peoples thoughts....
More...

One year is not enough IMO. I have built systems that work really well one year and then horrible the next. Find something that works 5+ years with over 1000 trades and you might have something :-)

Good Luck.
 
you waited too long to begin--- see Joe Paterno

you need to sym for about three years -- See Joe Paterno

Backtesting is not wenough, markets change see Joe paterno.
 
No, I would not backtest more. I would sim trade live and see if the results are similar. If so, start trading small and size up as you become more confident in your system and get gains under your belt. AFAIK a system is only half the battle. Your money management is also key to your success.
 
You stated your system. thats cool.

All systems, to be complete, have several parts.

Because you lack several parts, you need to consider the consequences of their absence.

Here is a simple example:

The daily bar. It is defined in many ways.

An ES daily bar can have up to 40 profit segments for an expert trader of the ES.

In contrast, a beginner may only do 10 to 12 trades of profit segments. Here 2 contracts only make up to 3 or 4 thousand dollars a day.

You may want to conclude that you have left a lot of parts out of your system.

Let any period be composed of bars. Look at one of those bars. Do you see parts of that bar? If you do, what is the system that deals with the bar.

Here is another example.

color.

Do color for a moment.

Do shades.

Do tints.

Do secondary colors.

Do tertiary colors.

Work with complimentary colors.

Do analigous colors.



Start over as Joe Paterno would say.
 
Wilk is spoken of in another thread.

He tweaks to minimize failure.

What's the simple specific tweak for making a watercolor really stand out?

Masking fliud.

When you buy watercolors or water color brushes, does the sale person sell you masking fluid.

What's the simple basic tweak for making a water color sparkle?

sprinkle salt on the wet paint. Rub it off when the painting has dried.

Lets transfer these thoughts to trading.

If you do not know how to get colors, you can't paint.

if you do not know how to prevent paint on small tricky areas, you can't paint.

If you do not know how to make your paintings outstanding, you can't paint.

The OP has many ommissions in his system. First, he has to not leave things out.

If something isn't good enough to sell, then DO NOT USE IT YOURSELF.

You know if something is good enough to sell if people are trying to buy it.

Try selling your ego that's what Joe Paterno is doing.

Where's the meat? .... is always a good question.

Trading systems are not vegetarian in character.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

you waited too long to begin--- see Joe Paterno

you need to sym for about three years -- See Joe Paterno

Backtesting is not wenough, markets change see Joe paterno.
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Anyone with $100 and two weeks preparation is guaranteed a lifetime income --- see jack hershey

You want to worship a self-aggrandized guru who cannot trade, having major insecurities, and has no problems playing the part of pied piper to trusting newbies --- see jack hershey

You want someone who generates 1000s of pages of encrypted hieroglyphics that essentially say nothing --- see jack hershey
 
For day trading, I go back ten years of data and longer term on dailies a min of twenty years. Sample size min of 3000. I want to really know how bad is bad and how good in good. But one year of testing is a sneeze.
 
Quote from jack hershey:

you waited too long to begin--- see Joe Paterno

you need to sym for about three years -- See Joe Paterno

Backtesting is not wenough, markets change see Joe paterno.
More...



JoePaterno's had a difficult childhood. The only thing that works on Joe is Psychology. :) :)

You see, Joe, a HERD member from his father's side, but his Ma was a lioness who was a master of reverse psychology - Joe, a child of particularly intemperate disposition, loved to pull pubic hairs from under girls' dresses and reveled in their shrieks of agony.

At age 7, when Ma returned home late one night after having left little Joe in the capable hands of Mary, their babsitter, she beheld them both outside by the pool with Mary pleading and begging little Joe to go to his room as it was way past his bedtime. Joe wouldn't budge.

Ma sent Mary home and went into the house and returned with a blanket and pillow which she handed to little Joe and said, "have a good night, see you in the morning. Love you"

Little Joe was in his room and in bed in under 5 minutes. :)
 
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