100% Consumption....Zero Savings....

[Vinny1]

How does the new bankruptcy law work?

 

[areyoukidding?]

Quote from Ivanovich:

Excellent! I'll be in the market to buy - with the cash I have saved up - sometime in a year to two. Perfect!

Ive been saying that since '98

 

[CoolTrader]

Will the burst of RE bubble cause a recession?

 

[areyoukidding?]

Quote from CoolTrader:

Will the burst of RE bubble cause a recession?

Ahh, the bears are coming out of the woodwork now.

 

[EqtTrdr]

Quote from areyoukidding?:

Ahh, the bears are coming out of the woodwork now.

that seems to happen whenever we have a down day..lol


10 days up in a row.. 1 day pullback on light volume, the bears all come out screaming "top" and "we're doomed" and "sell everything Mortimer"

 

[TGregg]

Quote from EqtTrdr:

that seems to happen whenever we have a down day..lol


10 days up in a row.. 1 day pullback on light volume, the bears all come out screaming "top" and "we're doomed" and "sell everything Mortimer"

Top! We're Doomed!, DOOMED I tell you!

Seriously though, yeah I'm a bear. But we've had light volume for a month (more or less) now. And we're due for one of those big ol ~20 point day ranges on ES on high volume. But that could be to the upside.

And by now we've a whole new batch of ES traders that never ran into trading curbs. That could make for an interesting day (and some frantic posts here on ET).

 

[smitsky]

the 1st article requires registration but ahhhh i get the point!

 

[drsteph]

Quote from lilboy716:

hey..

someone has to hold the bag.

banks are the best indiscriminate sellers when the floor is taken out underneith everyone.

5%? isn't that a bit high... anyway...

1929 bubble was built on 10% margin. (effected 2-3mill people out of 100mill population)

2000 bubble was built on 50% regT margin. (effected almost everyone. ppl w/mutual funds, 401k....)

200x bubble was built on 0-20% down payment (everyone that has properties & money in the bank)

and the bankrupcy law had just changed.

the eventual bag holders will have to pay off their debt even though the properties are no longer theirs (sold by the banks). if it does happen... there are going to be tons of poor people in deep deep holes.

how high can the fed go? nobody knows.

the difference between 5yr - 10yr bond is only about .17% it was .25% a few months back... it'll take 6-10 quarter point increases for it to invert. we'll see what happens then

Hey... you know something?

Think about that for a second.

All the poor blokes who get caught on upward ARMS, either holding on or biting the bullet 2% higher and refinancing into a 30 year at about 8%.

So, to afford their mcmansion, they have increasing amounts of personal income going to service debt if they hold onto the property to maintain their credit rating.

That decreases disposable income and consumer spending.

Hmmm.... isn't that Deflationary?

 

[Covertibility]

US 30-, 15-year mortgages

"U.S. 30-year mortgage rates averaged 5.89 percent in the week ended Aug. 11...."

--------

Those poor blokes at 6 really are getting the shaft.

 

[FireWalker]

Quote from drsteph:

Hey... you know something?

Think about that for a second.

All the poor blokes who get caught on upward ARMS, either holding on or biting the bullet 2% higher and refinancing into a 30 year at about 8%.

So, to afford their mcmansion, they have increasing amounts of personal income going to service debt if they hold onto the property to maintain their credit rating.

That decreases disposable income and consumer spending.

Hmmm.... isn't that Deflationary?

for housing? yes. (who says they're going to hold on? their credit rating? you're joking)


fed enacted in 1913? or was it 1916?

since then (over 90 years) we've had 1 year of deflation (even with the contortions CPI goes through). that's ONE YEAR at 0.1% deflation.

and now suddenly we're in for deflation?

think again



i need more gold