Before I joined here, I used to occasionally have the thought that rallies after big declines would happen because too many people were short, had made money being short, and were as complacent as longs would be after a big rally.
After having hung out here for a while this year, I'm convinced of it.
The decline over the prior 7 trading days - the shortest time horizon I study - isn't even an abnormal movement for a 7 day period. Looking at these threads, you'd think we'd already had a major decline and were bracing for worse - which is what the Friday before the real Black Monday was like. There had been a real decline back then, and the feeling of true panic was already there. On Rukeyser, when Marty Zweig was asked if this was a crash, he said "Yes" without hesitation.
This is just a bunch of shorts getting too cocky on an unremarkable selloff.