James Simmons, Renaissance and Medallion.
10,000 hours to learn trading - Who wrote this rule?
- Thread starter tomorton
- Start date
James Simmons, Renaissance and Medallion.
This is the time in this debate that we can only agree to disagree; I take all of your words as valid opinion. I can tell, however, there are ET members that have mastered this art, that are very unique and gifted in ways that others, including myself, are not.
The only point I have tried to convey, without any success, is that the 10,000 hours, as a rule, is an arbitrary number. Everyone is unique and I do know of people that have the mental gifts that have enabled them to become incredibly successful at trading in a fraction of the time that was required by others to have equal success.
I have no idea or claim on how long it is going to take me to master this art, but I do know that stamping a negative connotation upon my endeavor, such as. "it will take 10,000 hours", is the worst thing, psychologically, one can believe.
How many patterns are there? How hard is it to learn how to determine a trend is forming?
When I invent a new mechanical device, I totally design it and put it into operation in my brain, as if it were right in front of me, I then see the mechanical flaws and re-design it, in my brain, to a point of being mechanically sound. A prototype is then made and operates as envisioned.
On a chart, I have many indicators that along with price action, T & S, DOM and more; so much is going on that it would confuse a lot of traders, but my brain is different and to me, it all tells a story and it does so very quickly and accurately. I know there are many traders on this site that don't believe in TA at all, because it doesn't work for them; that doesn't mean that I think they are wrong and I am right, it means our brains process information differently and they have found a method of trading that is conducive to how their brain functions.
How quickly our brains understand and process information, along with our ability to control emotions, will determine how long it takes to become proficient at trading, not some arbitrary number of hours.
The only point I have tried to convey, without any success, is that the 10,000 hours, as a rule, is an arbitrary number. Everyone is unique and I do know of people that have the mental gifts that have enabled them to become incredibly successful at trading in a fraction of the time that was required by others to have equal success.
I have no idea or claim on how long it is going to take me to master this art, but I do know that stamping a negative connotation upon my endeavor, such as. "it will take 10,000 hours", is the worst thing, psychologically, one can believe.
How many patterns are there? How hard is it to learn how to determine a trend is forming?
When I invent a new mechanical device, I totally design it and put it into operation in my brain, as if it were right in front of me, I then see the mechanical flaws and re-design it, in my brain, to a point of being mechanically sound. A prototype is then made and operates as envisioned.
On a chart, I have many indicators that along with price action, T & S, DOM and more; so much is going on that it would confuse a lot of traders, but my brain is different and to me, it all tells a story and it does so very quickly and accurately. I know there are many traders on this site that don't believe in TA at all, because it doesn't work for them; that doesn't mean that I think they are wrong and I am right, it means our brains process information differently and they have found a method of trading that is conducive to how their brain functions.
How quickly our brains understand and process information, along with our ability to control emotions, will determine how long it takes to become proficient at trading, not some arbitrary number of hours.
Here we go, the whole point of the studies has proven anyone with 10,000 hours experience can do more or less any job and better than those which appear to have natural talent. Unfortunately, which bursts many bubbles because everyone thinks they are gifted, special, talented, with that many hours of valid experience, not paper trading, they can do what you do.
I have no illusions that they could also do what I do, but that will only ever be a handful of people because I have such a unique situation, with multiple 10,000s of hours in core disciplines relating to financial markets, basically only myself and a few select people have ever done it. Then we come to the devil in the detail, if you don't have a desire to do that profession you will never be successful no matter how many hours you put in, basically you are there to pay the bills, which covers most people.
Being gifted is purely that you are in an environment which you trust implicitly and can absorb other peoples experience, the Turtles are always the best example. They had an exact set of rules to follow, they had no idea why they worked, but as long as they followed them they made money. And there is the illusion, if great experience creates a methodology which allows others to use their 10,000 hours via a set of exact rules, they can beat you even with your own 10,000 hours, their process is more efficient.
So, you are wrong, but don't worry about it as 99.99% will fight that simply because they cannot believe that anyone, with the time, experience, and resources, can not only do what they do, but can actually walk in with a month of training and beat them, rare but it happens. I tested the psychology on people including my own family, trying to force me to absorb their mistakes, their brains go in to meltdown. You are not unique, any more than myself, just in a smallish select group, which most people believe allows them to prove their existence. I'm in a smaller group but we're not bothered about proving existence, we just absorb their losses when ultimately they make a mistake trying to show they're some sort of demigod.
Or you start out at a young age. Like most doctors do. Hehe.
%%
Great general rule. I proved the market was NOT random, first year I traded. I did MUCH worse than random LOL; so I figured I could do much better, in time .
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That is so wrong; Google "10,000 hours" and "studies"; you will find many more "experts" that say that the 10,000 hour studies are garbage than you will find ones that support it.
I have had hundred's of people work for me, in my 35 years in business and I had many that performed work that required a greater mental capacity and many that required greater mechanical skills. I watched many people perform their work for 5 to 15 years and I can assure you that there were many that never did better than less than average work, even after 10 years, while a new person would come in, with zero experience and out perform the 10,000 plus hour workers, within three months and I can assure you the 10,000 hour workers were as dedicated as one can be; that's the only reason they kept their job.
I believe that there is a high failure rate, among new traders, because many believe that it is easy and anyone can do it; how hard could it be to make a few trades and become rich? Trading and even more so, learning to trade is very demanding and requires certain abilities; it's all too easy to have too much confidence and too little knowledge and skill and blow your account in fast order. I believe that is what happens to the majority of those in that 95% class that fails.
Like I said, we will have to agree to disagree; the 10,000 hour studies are flawed and the theory doesn't even come close to what I have witnessed.
That said, I don't know if it will take me 1000 hours or 10,000 hours; I won't know that until I get there. Enough said!
Actually I wrote about the 10,000 hour rule five years ago. I wrote it because I studied and traded every business day for five years and thought I finally reached profitability.
I was wrong.
My new rule is that it takes 20,000 hours to reach profitability in day trading!
Nah, not really. Some people don't trade much. So how do you tell?