1 min charts lead the rest? And buying/selling pressure on indices?

[Chris Mac]

What I've found is you can't really analyse too many time periods as there's normally always something in one of the time periods that may stop you taking the trade. More is not better, less for most people is better.

I like a time period (for signals) and then go 4 times higher, perhaps 1m/4m or 60m/240m etc. You could even use three so 60/240 and then perhaps the 20 for fine tuning. But if you look at everything the brain can get confused and you need mental CLARITY in this game.

I agree with you, few people in this world would be enough smart (autist? sociopath? ) to analyze every move in every time period.
Thanks God, you don't need to be a genius to make money. You need :
- Simple rules (aka simple for you, but maybe difficult for sbdy else).
- Patience (no anticipation, trade what you see)
- Discipline

CM

 

[Have a nice day trader]

Best not place bets on a vacation and have a bad trade, but from a quick observation from my point of view. A short trade when the daily is in a bottom range channel and its Histogram is green+1mn above the 200? Could list more to support against the short but that's enough for me to lay back down and place it on the short ignore list.

From a 1 min traders point of view it was a good trade but we all see things differently. To my view daily is too high for a 1 min trader to care about but there was obvious downwards momentum on 4 hour and 1 hour and a clear pullback in a trend on the 15 min.

 

[Zodiac4u]

From a 1 min traders point of view it was a good trade but we all see things differently. To my view daily is too high for a 1 min trader to care about but there was obvious downwards momentum on 4 hour and 1 hour and a clear pullback in a trend on the 15 min.

Yes we do see things differently and price went up, not down. But it may of have been just timing.
Trading is like pronouncing words, you need to line up the sounds (*charts*) in the right order. I find that ignoring charts on a trip gives me a fresher perspective when I return. Enjoy your vacation.

 

[Have a nice day trader]

Yes we do see things differently and price went up, not down. But it may of have been just timing.
Trading is like pronouncing words, you need to line up the sounds (*charts*) in the right order. I find that ignoring charts on a trip gives me a fresher perspective when I return. Enjoy your vacation.

Agreed the price went up eventually but my trade south worked out first, bounced almost exactly at Fridays low (on my broker) so would have been an easy 30 pip trade in the morning. I trade at £10 a pip so £300 in the morning then relax for the rest of the day would have done me. Don't care so much what happens after, buying back up against the 15 min trend would have been a struggle so I would have left that to those inclined to do so. I do intend to enjoy my vacation but I also get a lot of pleasure out of watching charts which makes trading an absolute joy for me, especially when I win ;-) . Thanks for your input to the thread and I hope we meet again here, you are obviously an intelligent trader. Off for some chorizo and more olives

 

[Zodiac4u]

Thank you. Yes I am, But the posts on this sight are timed. What you did before, I really haven't a clue, by comparing the time of your post to the time on the chart is what we are taking about. Enjoy your chorizo and olives.

 

[birzos]

Your friend is correct, although it's a little more complex than that. The 1m will gauge a move, actually the 1s, 100ms will also but not many can go to this level, it's a Matryoshka. The problem is the 1m can be whipsawed by the higher timeframes, so when they are in unison they start at the lower timeframe and move up, but the opposite can also happen where the higher timeframe filters down to the lower timeframe.

Then, most of the time the market is in 'flux' and the timeframes are seemingly random, they are not, however you may have 100s of 1m moves in a daily trend move. If you are in the middle of a daily move you cannot say if the 1m is trending as it might be pushed or pulled, you can use the 1hr to reduce the risk but again the daily may have another plan. A move is a move, the markets don't care that you identified and 1m trend when they are focused on the 1d move, which is what is happening with GBPUSD right now, you'll be one of the many morsels for the day, the smart money put their trades on back in August.

So the gauge works at the fat-tail events of the start and the end of a higher timeframe move, but in the middle anything can happen. The indices are combined views on the stocks, it's the exact same principle as the timeframes, they can move in unison or be separate, it depends on the exact moment you are performing the analysis, start, end or middle and the timeframes involved in that analysis.

The stock market works on multi-dimensional matrices, every combination of everything, but there are a few combinations that reduce the possibilities down to a human manageable size, they are the systems that people like the Turtles used, transferable methodologies. Trade down to 1s charts so see this happening a lot, the lower the timeframe the more whipsaws you get as you have the higher timeframes providing pressure which can go against the 1m move forcing it to fail.

The higher the timeframe the less high probability trades but the less whipsaws, the middle such as 1hr are always painful as you have both higher and lower timeframes pushing and pulling at the same time, these are the trades you have to fight with and often get out less than you put in. If you read the Wizards books some of them trade the low timeframe to 'feel' the market which helps identify the high timeframe which produce the profit.

 

[Zodiac4u]

Your friend is correct, although it's a little more complex than that. The 1m will gauge a move, actually the 1s, 100ms will also but not many can go to this level, it's a Matryoshka. The problem is the 1m can be whipsawed by the higher timeframes, so when they are in unison they start at the lower timeframe and move up, but the opposite can also happen where the higher timeframe filters down to the lower timeframe.

Then, most of the time the market is in 'flux' and the timeframes are seemingly random, they are not, however you may have 100s of 1m moves in a daily trend move. If you are in the middle of a daily move you cannot say if the 1m is trending as it might be pushed or pulled, you can use the 1hr to reduce the risk but again the daily may have another plan. A move is a move, the markets don't care that you identified and 1m trend when they are focused on the 1d move, which is what is happening with GBPUSD right now, you'll be one of the many morsels for the day, the smart money put their trades on back in August.

So the gauge works at the fat-tail events of the start and the end of a higher timeframe move, but in the middle anything can happen. The indices are combined views on the stocks, it's the exact same principle as the timeframes, they can move in unison or be separate, it depends on the exact moment you are performing the analysis, start, end or middle and the timeframes involved in that analysis.

The stock market works on multi-dimensional matrices, every combination of everything, but there are a few combinations that reduce the possibilities down to a human manageable size, they are the systems that people like the Turtles used, transferable methodologies. Trade down to 1s charts so see this happening a lot, the lower the timeframe the more whipsaws you get as you have the higher timeframes providing pressure which can go against the 1m move forcing it to fail.

The higher the timeframe the less high probability trades but the less whipsaws, the middle such as 1hr are always painful as you have both higher and lower timeframes pushing and pulling at the same time, these are the trades you have to fight with and often get out less than you put in. If you read the Wizards books some of them trade the low timeframe to 'feel' the market which helps identify the high timeframe which produce the profit.

Trading is as easy as 1-2-3, if you complicate it with other peoples ancient theories or find yourself data mining until you are in a state of flux or in a loop? Its in our nature to personalize a system that fits our ego's desire. We always want to have a better system. we are always going to think we are smarter or better than the other guy, but after you have spent millions of hours and searched over umpteen years like I have, you will and I hope come to the same conclusion. Its not complex its easy, its the (us) thing that causes (us) to loose money.

 

[Have a nice day trader]

@Zodiac4u agreed that trading is as simple as the trader makes it and can be done simply and yet still profitably but certain traders will always find it easier to add those extra layers of analysis. If that's what they need and it indeed does work for them then I say good luck to them. The problem is that most traders are losing and so think they must need to add more complexity to make themselves profitable. Of course the key is to be able to keep it simple and still profit.

 

[birzos]

And so here is the conclusion.

1. Learn prevention which is not just trading but affects all aspects of your life

2. Treat it as a hobby and enjoy your time with it rather than making money

3. Ignore trading exists and go and do something else you find interesting

4. Create books, algorithms, mentoring to bring in new people to 'feed the beast'

5. Add complexity breaking all the rules and hope it doesn't implode as normally happens

The top 1%, technically it's 0.1% but that's another discussion, use 1 & 5 as the two methods to generate income and wealth, they are opposite approaches to the same end result. With 1) the trade comes to you and is a Warren Buffet approach, with 5) you fight the trade until you win which is LTCM.

You can also use 2) sometimes it gains momentum for no particular reason and just 'takes off', with 4) that is survival for both the providers and customers. The higher timeframe trades such as 1d, 1w are prevention trades which generate large amounts of wealth if you are in the 1%. The lower timeframes 1m, 1s are true fighting trades but as you have 1-2 & 7-10 high probability trades per day you can pick and choose when you fight the market, unless you are the market then it's different (HFT).

All the others 5m, 1hr, 240m are the fighting trades in the middle, it works if you can do set and forget but that needs a transferable methodology, and even then at these timeframes they are subject to failure due to the push/pull from both sides. Most fight the middle timeframes being 'in the market' 24x7 using small subsets of 1) and 5) then wonder why they get out less than they put in, which pushes them out of trading via 3) until they regroup and try again, then capitulate.

The best traders in the world use 1) or 5), and there are a handful of legendary traders who can use 1) and 5) interchangeably without mixing the methodologies, they can see market events building up years in advance and action them with pinpoint precision. It all fits within a normal distribution.

1w: -4 stddev
1h: ~0 stddev
1s: +4 stddev