Quote from hypostomus:
"My thinking on the first entry is that you are in the trade to get the initial range expansion of the day and, therefore the first reversal is the bounce off the initial range expansion."
Hmmmmm. You write as if that initial "range expansion" (curious term) occurs in a vacuum. Does it reverse randomly? From exhaustion? Inexplicably in mid-air? Or because there was a test of the prior close? Or of the prior day's pivot? Or of the prior day's high or low? Or of the price prior to the reaction to unexpected pre-opening news?
You write as if you have no clue where the reversal will occur, or why. My motto is that if price reverses where there is no line on my chart, it reversed at a line on somebody else's chart, and that I had better figure out where that line was for future reference.
Very few things occur in a vacuum. The opening trade (after synch) is rich in information transmission.
Every day the H/L range of the market expands after synch is reached. The synch is reached within 7 to 15 minutes of the open. where markets to be open 24/7, then the mathematics of the market could be continuous function analysis. That will never happen until the financial industry goes global and people with responsibilities work in shifts and do handoffs. Not likely since most decision makers are rich.
This is a simplistic thread par excellance. simplistic OP. simplistic questions. I had to construct a simplistic solution. 10 contracts and 2 ticks is a simplistic as it can get.
Obviously anyone can detect the vacuum, seemingly randomness, et al and etc...
Unfortunately, I posted a print which changed the subject. Of all things I posted, the DOM, which always displays the limits of price movement in the very short term, could have been expanded in a helpful way to get the 2 tick exit straight.
There are many more than six Q's that form the context for range expansion and its limits. How many are used is determined by the certainty which I, in my case, require. The rule followed is a "sufficiency" rule; to you my sufficiency appears to be a vacuum.
I asked this guy if he wanted to spend 18 days and see Antarctica; he cogently replied that Africa was his choice instead. We can compare notes after we each return. I thought that since we would have had six days at sea, spaced in singles or doubles, that he might learn something. I was an optimist as everyone can see. He likes to drink coffee and chat. I like making people very rich. We have differing goals.
The distance to go from simplistic to simple is measured in elegance and by that I mean applying the test of certainty by using sufficiency. I use stalagtites and the wall as shown by the longest for each oscillation on the way to the end of the intial range expansion. A substitute is reading the tape where the tape is BBid, BAsk and the trades that occur. I use two T&S's. One for 50 plus and the other for ALL; they are left and right, respectively. Usually I prefer to axe the BBid and BAsk to slow the tape down. I judge the place holder levels and the "units" on the 50 plus numbers since people ID themselves to others by this means. Most smart money trading is done by partial fills as we all know. Dividing by a number less than 10 yields a constant value in the units position.
Using a laptop in Antarctica on a beach surrounded with docile penguins costs a mere 0.68 dollars a minute 968 cents). The feed may be slow (slightly delayed). Who cares. A wall is a wall on the DOM. Seeing the wall and its reflection on the T&S makes it, roughly speaking, unnecessary to see a chart with bars and anotations.
Many people have seen me trade with out looking at the price chart. There are videos of it happening in fact. you can read the "putting the pieces together" and see it done (by leafing through the text and illustrations of one trading day) with tables of values only.
Almost no data is required to trade simply (meaning elegantly and accutrately with certainty).
Look at the making of money and the support systems for doing that. I laid aside some notes for about 20 years at one point in my life. Finally, they had application since the technology had appeared. To do something simple and elegant, takes equipment appropriate to the application. There are two ways to get equipped: buy it when it becomes available or grow it when you have time to spend.
First, I spent the time to grow it.
Buy it takes much longer. As you see here some people cannot find the DOM. Airhead thinks the DOM is a scam. and he has grown a freakout mind that wow's all over the place.
Your list of market articacts in front of the question marks were grow in your mind by the seeds you plants there. they will always grow there. I didn't grow those in my mind and they are not on my computers and bank of displays. I decided to look only at an annotated NOW and just use what NOW is speaking and obey what I am told to do. I am a parasite of the market and I obey P, V (on YM leading ES in times of change), OTR charts (YM and ES), S/S (YM and INDU premium), and the DOM and 2 T&S's, and a trading book. IF I close thee down I can bring up a table and use it. If I do not want the first set nor the table, I can bring up three indicators and volume: MACD (5, 13, 6); STOCH (5, 2, 3) and STOCH (STD design). The values of the MACD and STOCH I authored long before they becme conventional as the historical Q and A's have recorded.
I spent my time. I grew my mind. At some point trading became unconscious for me. I call it sports memory. I now know how the mind works and I shall coauthor on it before long. Along the way I learned that the mind can be wrecked in the process of learning. Learning failure in trading is an irreversable process as is demonstrated PROFOUNDLY in ET. When a person crosses the line, he cannot get back to the other side. The mind does not have an eraser built into it. The mind can only process positives; it drops the negative modifiers. When I speak of no eraser, you are seeing an eraser, for example. When I speak of eraser; you see an eraser, also. Try erasing the eraser. Erase the eraser. Try hared to erase the eraser.
How can a person erase the scam from the DOM if he believes it is a scam? It is in his mind and to deal properly, he has to eliminate it as a first recourse by building a mental barrier that stands before this current recourse that is so damaging. how many barriers can a person build if he is not reasoning and working, working hard and purposefully every minute he spends.
The OP of this thread starts threads all the time. It is like he goes from field to field and only ploughs one furrough in each. He is an exercise in futility. It is extremely valuable to learn from this example of total screwup.
Playing the initial range expansion is a daily certainty. It happens after the synch. The synch is a daily certainty. The premium is announced before the open.
There are few prices during any day that are only traded once. Everyone always has a second chance to trade at any price the market trades at.
One thing about trading that is very pure and always true is that no one can really bullsh*t themselves and be correct. You have to do the work to know that you know.
Helping other people work to become rich is the most fun of all.
