1% a day consistently: possible?

[OddTrader]

Quote from stephencrowley:

... and I'll have to find something else to trade.

Probably based on merely 5 days backtesting within one single market to project no losing weeks in real-life trading applicable to all markets would be a really big challenge to your system that targets 1% daily average return consistently.

Particularly when having less than 1% MaxDD, you like most traders may be quite happy to accept a MaxDD of say 10% for earning an amazing 10% daily everyday.

Why did you do back-testing for only 5 days, including (how many days) out-of-sample data ? When was the 5 days period (last week?)?

 

[stephencrowley]

Days don't matter.

Quote from OddTrader:

Probably based on merely 5 days backtesting within one single market to project no losing weeks in real-life trading applicable to all markets would be a really big challenge to your system that targets 1% daily average return consistently.

Particularly when having less than 1% MaxDD, you like most traders may be quite happy to accept a MaxDD of say 10% for earning an amazing 10% daily everyday.

Why did you do back-testing for only 5 days, including (how many days) out-of-sample data ? When was the 5 days period (last week?)?

 

[nononsense]

Quote from stephencrowley:
(in reference to Grob109, alias Jack, bubba)

I see a lot of typing but nothing that makes sense.

Not bad Stephen!

nononsense

 

[ElectricSavant]

Stephen,

Your hedged-arb system is fascinating to me...I wish I knew more...but then you would have to kill me

Michael B.

Please forgive me if I mis-spoke, but I think I have put together a few clues...I understand you are speaking "in tongues" and I suggest you throw a curve ball to throw the reverse-engineers off a little. You seem to be getting some attention from a few experienced traders here.

 

[stephencrowley]

lol. I don't have access to some super-secret shit like the dude on PI... I guess anyone can build something similiar with enough coding and research.

Quote from ElectricSavant:

Stephen,

Your hedged-arb system is fascinating to me...I wish I knew more...but then you would have to kill me

Michael B.

Please forgive me if I mis-spoke, but I think I have put together a few clues...I understand you are speaking "in tongues" and I suggest you throw a curve ball to throw the reverse-engineers off a little

 

[romik]

You know guys, i really do not understand the purpose of automated trading unless one is trying to trade more than one instrument, which would make consistent monitoring pretty difficult or your formula includes so many variables that a human brain can not analyse it in time. I absolutely enjoy manual trading, to me this is a potential opportunity to make money and have "fun" at the same time.

I only trade ES (OK, that's just me) and another thing i would like to mention is what's the reasoning behind trying to achieve 1% daily return, surely your annual average or be it quarterly is the real goal. Even if you are a day trader, what is the reasoning behind trying to enter trades on daily basis to achieve that 1% return?

 

[stephencrowley]

You know, it just occured to me that this is a good idea to combine with my strategy.. take some of the risk out of fading. Of course there is always ways to generate profit on paper.. get a chart and draw points on the peaks and valleys.. i still dont understand why a sufficiently real simulation isnt close enough to the real thing. As it is, I am delerious from lack of sleep and my 'real job' is taking up a shtload of time this week. Maybe i'll throw some fading action into the mix and see what comes.

Quote from Random.Capital:

The answer to your question is YES - coming up with a system that does 1% a day on paper is not only possible, it's really quite trivial. There are literally thousands of equivalent ways of doing it - on paper. The vast majority of those approaches fall under the general class of "fading". Or "contrarian", if you prefer.

So have no fear, you are on well-trodden ground.

Unfortunately paper-trading, no matter how live, will not get you to the next step.

 

[stephencrowley]

I might do that some day, as it is I have a 'real job' that wont allow me to do that. Plus, I like to sleep in and can't be bothered to wake up and watch charts...

Quote from romik:

You know guys, i really do not understand the purpose of automated trading unless one is trying to trade more than one instrument, which would make consistent monitoring pretty difficult or your formula includes so many variables that a human brain can not analyse it in time. I absolutely enjoy manual trading, to me this is a potential opportunity to make money and have "fun" at the same time.

I only trade ES (OK, that's just me) and another thing i would like to mention is what's the reasoning behind trying to achieve 1% daily return, surely your annual average or be it quarterly is the real goal. Even if you are a day trader, what is the reasoning behind trying to enter trades on daily basis to achieve that 1% return?

 

[romik]

Quote from stephencrowley:

...i still dont understand why a sufficiently real simulation isnt close enough to the real thing. As it is, I am delerious from lack of sleep and my 'real job' is taking up a shtload of time this week. Maybe i'll throw some fading action into the mix and see what comes.

It will not prepare you mentally and it depends on quantity of shares/contracts/etc you are trading now and will be trading in the real world.

 

[mahras2]

Quote from romik:

You know guys, i really do not understand the purpose of automated trading unless one is trying to trade more than one instrument, which would make consistent monitoring pretty difficult or your formula includes so many variables that a human brain can not analyse it in time. I absolutely enjoy manual trading, to me this is a potential opportunity to make money and have "fun" at the same time.

We don't trade for fun. We trade to win. -Larry Hite