1% a day consistently: possible?

1% a day consistently, no down weeks: possible?

  • Yes

    Votes: 58 47.9%
  • No

    Votes: 63 52.1%

  • Total voters
    121
  • Poll closed .
Quote from spike500:

Futures are always traded on margin. Even the biggest idiot knows that you cannot take 20% a day in the S&P without leverage.
99.99% of the daily moves in the S&P are smaller than 20%.

Romik says that his 20% went to 12.8% due to bad execution. If that would be without leverage it would mean the execution took days. It is clear he meant margin trading.

By marginable trades I meant returns on margins. Not marginable trades returns are %gains based on full contract value. It is not the first time someone comes here with 3 posts under their handle and states he can squeeze 10-20% a day, yes, full return on full contract, on futures.
 
Quote from romik:

Automated trading perhaps can not reach high return levels, because it is an automated process, machines don't think they simply execute. I do not need a maching to tell me when and what to do. How can the machine know what's happening in the real world? I am a strong believer in the principle to keep it simple in trading, the more one involves a computer program to decide when to enter/exit trades is making a mistake in my opinion. When I look at my trading strategy I realize that there is no way to automate it and be perhaps profitable.

Conclusion : you can't believe automated trading brings bigger returns just because your strategy cannot be automated.... The day you will find something which can be automated, come back and let us know if you ae still thinking the same.
 
Quote from Bitstream:

By marginable trades I meant returns on margins. Not marginable trades returns are %gains based on full contract value. It is not the first time someone comes here with 3 posts under their handle and states he can squeeze 10-20% a day, yes, full return on full contract, on futures.

Returns for funds are always calculated as returns on invested capital. Check the rules that have to be followed by CTA's to comply with NFA and CFTC and you will see what i mean (VAMI). Risc is also mesured on invested capital.
For Romik it was clear that he meant on invested capital as i already mentioned earlier. So no need to discuss this return on full contract.

To be clear about my opinion: i never said that all these returns that are posted are real, but the arguments used to proof that the returns are fake are sometimes fake too. I reacted mostly against the so called waterproof system of coumpounding. It is more often used in a abusive way than in a correct way.
 
Quote from spike500:

Returns for funds are always calculated as returns on invested capital. Check the rules that have to be followed by CTA's to comply with NFA and CFTC and you will see what i mean (VAMI). Risc is also mesured on invested capital.
For Romik it was clear that he meant on invested capital as i already mentioned earlier. So no need to discuss this return on full contract.

To be clear about my opinion: i never said that all these returns that are posted are real, but the arguments used to proof that the returns are fake are sometimes fake too. I reacted mostly against the so called waterproof system of coumpounding. It is more often used in a abusive way than in a correct way.

fair enough, I also think those returns are achievable, and it's more the case on products like sgxnk, where margin req are extremely low and ranges of 200-600points a day can allow u to double your stake on a daily basis.
On his side also, he's auto-trading and I stated many times before that without a competitive algo u have little or no chance of being successful on futs, therefore this adds some credibility to what he's saying.
 
Amazing progress

romik
01-29-06 08:26 PM
Hi all,

I am about to start trading e-minis and considering opening an account with IB. I am a bit confused about other software that "has to be used" alongside their TWS.
 
Quote from spike500:

The logic of your math sucks and you have apparently no knowledge about the futures markets ( Romik talks about the ES).

To calculate the ending equity you need at least the following elements to make a realistic calculation:
-margin per contract
-maximum position that can be absorbed by the market
-starting capital

I will give 2 examples just to show that your calculation is based on simplicity and lack of knowledge about trading:

first example:
starting capital 5000 $
net profit per day 600$ ( equals 12 %)
maximum number of positions unlimited
margin per contract 1000$

We start trading 5 contracts, we trade 21 days.
You cannot simple compound at 12% a day because you need 500$ to add a new contract. This lowers the effect of compounding. The ending equity for the month will be 49640 $.


second example:
starting capital 100000 $
net profit per day 12000$ ( equals 12 %)
maximum number of positions unlimited
margin per contract 1000$

We start trading 100 contracts, we trade 21 days.
The last day we will theoretically trade 961 contracts. But the question is: how big can we grow before the position is too big to be executed in a normal way?
That is the point where ALL the compounding calculations go wrong. They all calculate simply by compounding without taking the limitations of real trading in account. That's how they want to proof that, at the disputed returns, you should own the whole world.

If Romik is smart he would stop posting about these things because all he can get is negative reactions and unbelief. I have been bashed also before, so i decided not to tell anything anymore. Keep the stupid stupid and the smart smart. And as the stupids always think they are smart, everybody will be happy.

Look romik simply said he was net averaging 20% returns in papertrader per day and 12.5% returns/day in real life. I am not a futures trader nor have I studied it. However, when you post that you are making 12.5% returns a day on average I assume that you are talking about a sizable account with at least a sizable capital capacity such that that net return can at least be consistently achieved.

I do not know of anyone posting performance without taking account realistic limitations.
 
Quote from winter:

Amazing progress

romik
01-29-06 08:26 PM

So what? Post all my posts why don't you, have you read them all? I never mentioned that I have been trading real account for a long time, I am a rookie, but a well prepared one though. All I told you that so far my trading generates that return on investment. I am not selling anything here or maybe I need to post 1000+ threads to qualify for your levels of wisdom? I am not here to start any sort of insults, I posted my returns in the wrong thread, as you are talking about AUTOtrading your strategies, I don't do that. I also expressed my views that autotrading strategies do not offer high returns on inv, as in my opinion they are there to preserve capital against inflation, etc. They are not aggressive enough to generate these sort of returns. Like Spike500 has suggested, I will not disclose my trading principles, all I can tell you that they are probably much more simple than most strategies based on TA. You can have a view that so called discretionary systems do not last and eventually we become Nick Leesons, fair enough, we all do what we believe in, right? Like I said before I am not after generating huge incomes, I prefer to be in the comfort zone for a long time. Whether it will actually work in the long run, only time will tell. But I will say it again that the more the risk, the more profit/loss potential is offered, you all know that, so what's the problem? Your risk level will command your future profit targets. In some way you can say that even Mr W Buffett is a high risk taker investing in a company and holding stock for many years, until you know what percentage of his actual cash he dedicates to that specific investment.
 
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