1.8% Profit per Day Compounded over 220 Days

[expiated]

Today was a day of uncharacteristically poor performance...

 

[expiated]

As a scalper, one of my goals was to avoid even a single unprofitable day, and here I have just experienced TWO in a row. It would appear that if I wish to duplicate the same kind of results using this new longer-term approach (which I do) I will certainly have my work cut out for me. (Perhaps the biggest part of the problem is what happens while I’m asleep.)

 

[expiated]

A week or two ago I pretty much finished the process of adapting a successful Forex scalping strategy to more of a quasi-swing/day trade hybrid by designing a graphic to help me employ an almost automated-like method of interpreting indicators rightly.

Basically I was using two sets of moving averages to categorize price action as: (1) bullish advance, (2) bullish retreat, (3) bearish advance, or (4) bearish retreat.

However, yesterday I lost money, and theoretically, that should almost never happen. In considering why it did, I determined that while the moving averages I was using would enable me to be successful much of the time, they were a little too lagging to lead to profitable decision-making virtually all of the time.

However, the basic strategy was still good. I just needed to adjust the two sets of moving averages I was using, which I did in the manner displayed below…

But the time frame to which these moving averages correlate will prohibit my continuing to enter trades if I will not be awake to keep an eye on things at least to some degree. Consequently, my next goal is to find out if I can automate the NPP trade strategy, which if really possible, could turn out to be a very nice development.

 

[expiated]

I intend to begin rebuilding from here, a little below where I started last week.

I have greatly simplified my chart, arriving earlier today at a single moving average I regard as my ultimate forecast tool. I could approximate it with a normal simple moving average (it is a proprietary indicator I coded myself) but it is a smoother line that is easier to “read” and interpret, and I find even fractions of increased accuracy to be extremely helpful, so memory saving approximations will not do...

By (in my opinion) accurately tracking price, this tool has informed me that abandoning my former practice of actively managing positions with a very hands-on approach to trading would be ill advised.

Once I can return to doing so (I’m too busy with other projects for that right now) the system should be even more profitable than before. In fact, I could’ve done much better today had I been able to exit positions according to price action rather than setting take-profit targets.

All in all, I’m pretty well pleased, and regard this week’s worth of damage well worth the price to have gained the clarity and simplicity my trading is likely to now have once I can get back to doing it full time.

 

[expiated]

On September 1, 2018 I began a process of attempting to adapt a Forex scalping strategy with about a 90% daily success rate to more of a quasi-swing/day trade hybrid with similar outcomes.

After applying what surely must have been my absolute best swing trade moving averages, I have still found them to be lacking. However, this process resulted in honing my former strategy to what is probably the height of its efficiency and effectiveness.



After zeroing in on what the last two years of Forex trading seems to suggest is—for me—the ultimate moving average, along with another two (technically three) proprietary moving averages that convey the story of exactly what is going on with a given currency pair at any given moment (thereby prescribing the absolute best times to enter, exit, and abandon positions) I have begun the process of returning my balance from one week ago back to profitable territory, and hope to build on it from there.



I trust this is the end of a final push to arrive at a settled set of tools, strategies, tactics, and techniques for fully developing my methodology—one that began in November of 2015. Hopefully that means I will no longer be writing posts like this, and will simply be recording results going forward.

 

[expiated]

I have not been able to realize consistent profits for over a week now, with price action striking me as being uncharacteristically erratic. But perhaps this is simply because I am not following the markets minute by minute.

At any rate, I was damaged most by AUDUSD when it broke out of its typical price range and kept going. I finally concluded that fundamental factors must be in control and to go with the flow. The pair messed around with me a bit, but then finally climbed higher, returning some of my losses, or else I’d be deeper in the whole than I am now.

Because of what I view as somewhat crazy behavior, I have opted to stop executing most intraday trades at the moment, and do something I’ve rarely done before by trading off daily charts, using the setup I adapted from my Numerical Price Prediction lower timeframe chart setups.

Consequently, I plan to remain long AUDUSD until the short-term trend on my daily chart turns south. The pair has been falling long-term ever since the end of January, so I’m hoping it will eventually resume doing so, thereby allowing me to easily recoup the major hit it delivered to me yesterday.

I am currently long EURGBP given that it has been climbing for the last three days after experiencing a major pullback in what has otherwise been an upward trajectory ever since April 17th. I have to give it a lot of leeway though, since the cable pairs have been swinging wildly lately.

GBPJPY looks unlikely to climb much higher than 147.48, so I will be watching over the next week or two for the right time to enter a short position and hopefully ride that pair all the way down to perhaps 141.16, or at least to 143.60.

 

[ironchef]

May I ask what is your average return per day to date since you started?

I asked because I tried many of the TA indicators including MA, none worked for me long term (>6 months).

 

[TraderEX]

My system is already fully developed. This is not an exercise to get my feet wet in that I already have several years experience demo trading under my belt. Rather, it will be a serious effort to grow a mere$100 into a substantial balance—enough to begin earning a satisfactory income from trading alone. I’d like to begin with $100 so I can enter at least a couple of positions simultaneously.

+why asking, you are "READY"

 

[TraderEX]

Since everyone who practices any sort of buy-and-hold approach to trading currency pairs will be forced to constantly watch their profits alternate between appearing and disappearing as rates ebb and flow, and given the fact that I will probably always have a preference for: (1) pocketing profits on a daily basis; (2) generating gains in a matter of minutes as opposed to hours or even days; (3) avoiding significant drawdown; and (4) escaping being stuck in positions or trades overnight… I am likely to combine the “swing for the fences” style I currently have under consideration with the guerrilla trading style that has always been my bread and butter in order to come up with a hybrid in which I rely on the former to inform me as to when and where major shifts in sentiment are likely to occur, but still employ the latter to dictate the precise moment I enter or exit positions.

going from an established system that provides bread and butter to an account that is 100 and cannot go to 250, is that your best course.

 

[TraderEX]

"Compounding to a billion (or two) though is just being a sarcastic and dumb commenter"

Not so fast... I know someone who has compounded $1000 into $2 billion, between the time he was 18 and 58. That's after tax.

trump was the 45th american to be president if you count Cleveland twice. Anomalies exist. try to be one. The ultimate risk for return. President or HOBO your choice.