Today and Monday I was able to realize anywhere from 50¢ to $3.36 in profits, or about 0.5% to 3.4% of $100 (though a significantly higher percentage of my actual current balance).
(I couldn’t sit around and wait for the signal to short AUDUSD yesterday, so I was stopped out of my original position and had to reenter the trade. But rest assured that if I had been able to trade in strict accordance with my system’s guidelines, every single action I took up to that point would have been profitable—a 100% success rate, so that my production would have ranged from $1.50 to $3.36.)
Unfortunately, I thought the market had turned against me later last night after I again sold AUDUSD and shorted NZDUSD as well, so I exited NZDUSD with only 11¢ profit, and accepted a loss from AUDUSD that was slightly more than a dollar. As it turns out however, my
original forecast was
correct, and had I remained in the trades, I would have eventually collected at least a dollar from each, so that today’s trades would have yielded $3.50.
Accordingly, I performed additional analysis to establish an
accurate impression of what constitutes the typical (i.e., expected) short-term price range. I also added a moving average that I ceased using a while ago, but rediscovered yesterday as the BEST indicator of the overall intraday direction of price.
Having the above information, I reevaluated my one-minute chart setup, which led to my categorizing the moving averages I use into three groups: (1) the day-to-day trend, (2) the overall intraday trend, and (3) the short-term intraday trend (see below).
I believe my settings are all now as precise and accurate as I can get them, which is probably why
every trade I have made since then has been profitable, and why I was able to climb out of the hole I got in last night.
Assuming I get no better at using this system, I would expect to make about $3.00 per day from now on, in which case, my account balance should be back at breakeven within 10 days.
However, as my balance grows, it will soon enable me to enter any two positions simultaneously, then three, and eventually execute multiple trades one after the other. Combine this with the likelihood that I probably
will improve my performance at least a little over time, and it’s hard to imagine that my account will not pass $5000 well before 220 days—perhaps even in as few as 150 days or less.
So there is not much to recommend the continuation of these daily updates, other than as a public display of my good fortune—which would be kind of tacky and distasteful. Also, what made this endeavor something of interest to me was my desire to know if it could really be done? In that I am now not only convinced that it can, but believe that this morning I’m actually seeing it happen before my very eyes, the thought of coming here to post numbers each day strikes me as kind of boring (since the “I wonder” component is no longer present).
Moreover, this “journal’s” primary functions, which were to guard against deluding myself into believing things were going okay when they weren’t, and to hopefully supply me with the kind of motivation that would not allow me to fail, are in my view, no longer pertinent. I have fine tuned the system and am now aware of how to maximize its performance, so the only thing that remains is to simply implement it in the same way I’ve been doing this morning.
Of course, the naysayers will warn that it takes a minimum of two or even ten years for me to be able to trust that the system is legit. But if an alien vessel were to drop down out of space and hover over the streets of Los Angeles for a day, that would be plenty enough observation to establish that cars (in the U.S.A at least) travel in the direction which puts the driver’s side of the vehicle closer to the curb than the passenger’s side. It’s totally obvious that this is what’s going on—and unless something completely bizarre happened to turn the entire system totally on its head, the same thing is going to be happening whether it’s a day from the ship’s arrival, or ten years later. Well, I think the tools I’m using as of this moment make things just as obvious when it comes to the direction exchange rates are likely headed in the Forex market.
But before I totally suspend further comment, I want to coin what I’m doing now as the “BATT” system, given that it no longer hinges on multiple simple moving average envelopes.
I think BATT (Biblical Approach to Trading—NOT Bitcoin & Altcoin Trading) is appropriate in that I arrived at this method partly by ignoring those teachers and trainers who claim that a sure way to fail is to opt NOT to use the most popular moving averages (i.e., the 10-, 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages), or to try to use more than one moving average.
Their rationale is that there is no point in watching something if no one else is looking at it, and that it is better to master one moving average than become an apprentice of them all. But experience convinced me that there are benefits to heeding the advice offered in the second half of Proverbs 11:14 and Proverbs 15:22, which extol the wisdom of relying on an abundance of counselors.
(My contention is that the use of multiple moving averages makes it that much easier to discern with confidence what the various exchange rates intend to do in the not too distant future—and that the use of non-standard moving averages frees one up to seek out and find the specific/precise moving average or moving averages that do a better job than all others in conveying with absolute accuracy and reliability where price is ultimately going to end up.)
Another biblical principle that guided my quest (or odyssey) was that of “testing everything and holding fast to that which is good,” which is what led me to reject all approaches involving Elliott waves, Fibonacci ratios, harmonic patterns and the like; and to also forego the use of moving average convergence/divergence (MACD), stochastic oscillators, the relative strength index (RSI), the commodity channel index ( CCI), the average directional movement index (ADX) and all other indicators, which I felt failed to live up to their reputations.
And finally, a careful reading of the Bible makes it clear that life is all about relationships. Scripture ranks good relationships as the most important thing in life, emphasizing that right relationships are of first importance; and a similar emphasis formed the foundation of my approach. It wasn’t so much about finding the keys to success. It was more like putting together the puzzle using pieces already at my disposal, assembling them so that each assumed its proper role—about how various moving averages
relate to one another in such a manner as to convey or forecast the future of “price” action.
So how did a very simple guy like me, using a handful simple moving averages come up with a winning system? If I am to believe Scripture, it is a mistake to think that “my power and the might of my hand have gotten me this wealth,” so I trust it’s true that it’s not I, but Yahweh, “who gives…power to get wealth.”
Hence, the main question I need to answer now is, assuming that the money I make
does begin to grow exponentially (God willing) how am I going to use it in a manner that magnifies Him and honors the Messiah? That’s a question I look forward to answering with earnest expectation.
In any event, good luck to anyone who happens to read this post!
¡Adios!
