1.5 Million Foreclosures; 100,000 Jobs Lost; 100 Lenders Bankrupt

the argument about unemployment statistics missing millions of people that stopped looking for job (and hence are not accounted as unemployed) is one of the most hilarious.

First it is derived from labor participation statistic which simply means that <i>less people are willing</i> to work. Note that these missing people do not need to drop from numerator of unemployment rate - they can come out of denominator which can potentially mean that the unemployment rate is even lower that it shows today in comparison to the past. These people may simply decide to live from wealth they accumulated which is in my opinion much more likely than that somebody with nothing to eat will stop looking for a job.
Second tightness of the market is much better demonstrated through costs of labor than an unemployment rate. On top of that nobody knows where natural level of employment is if the concept of <i>natural</i> rate <i>independent</i> of time even makes any sense...
 
Quote from Vinny1:

Does the government stop counting you in the labor pool when your unemployment runs out? Also, who is counted in the labor pool? Are there certain ages that they count?
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Kinda. To correct some responses, it is something like 6 months before you are considered a "discouraged" worker. Unemployment lasts 6 months but gets extended.
They care about adult to retirement age, not kids or the old.

If they do stop counting you, the unemployment figures are way off, saying 4.5% unemployment. As an example, if the labor pool is 100 people and 99 people get fired, we have a 99% unemployment rate. As soon as those 99 people's unemployment runs out, all of a sudden we have no unemployment.
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Exactly. It's called statistics.

In the government's defense, some ppl end up trying to start their own business. So they are not really unemployed. Just not making any money and dipping further into debt.

Real unemployment is at least 10% and growing. Everytime you see a story about another major corp taking operations offshore, realize that many, if not most, of those displaced workers will not be able to find a new job.
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:

Is the Bloomberg article factually incorrect in any respects?

If so, please feel free to point them out. I would be genuinely curious to know about them since I am making investment decisions partly based on such information.

Maybe I'm a 'resident realist.'
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Forget the article. Every post I've seen from you lately has been nothing other than "sky is falling" type posts. But ok! To each their own.


Quote from dhpar:

wow - rock strikes again.
I like that the deadline for this petition was 15apr03 with amazing 669 people signing. It is great to go through comments of those who signed, e.g. "I want to make money but don't have a job." .......whoaaaa

One thing for certain - you made it to my "buddy" list... :D
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LOL!
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

Forget the article. Every post I've seen from you lately has been nothing other than "sky is falling" type posts. But ok! To each their own.
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It's true that I believe that equities will get hit by housing/manufacturing recession.

Anyone who claims these "contagians" can be contained is ignoring history.

So, yes, I am somewhat bearish now.

I also believe in the compelling case that Shiller's has made for residential real estate melting down, at a time when it represents the biggest bubble that has ever existed in the history of the world.

But I like Valero and some oil service sector stocks.

I also like the Nikkei.

Bottom line: Blame Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal when I post an article that is bearish in tone. You got hit with Kudlow's Goldilocks stick. :p
 
Quote from ByLoSellHi:

It's true that I believe that equities will get hit by housing/manufacturing recession.

Anyone who claims these "contagians" can be contained is ignoring history.

So, yes, I am somewhat bearish now.

I also believe in the compelling case that Shiller's has made for residential real estate melting down, at a time when it represents the biggest bubble that has ever existed in the history of the world.

But I like Valero and some oil service sector stocks.

I also like the Nikkei.

Bottom line: Blame Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal when I post an article that is bearish in tone. You got hit with Kudlow's Goldilocks stick. :p
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Good luck, SellLoByHi....
 
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