1/4% Tax on all stock trades pushed in NY Times today

bjw said:
Imo the chances of the tax happening on a big scale in the next 3-5 years are infinitely smaller than they were earlier in this thread. Obama is definitely not going to implement one any time soon, and Europe is in a dead-lock. Expect that deadlock to last with Cameron being re-elected. Not a time to worry too much...
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Awesome this makes me more comfortable. I'm still going to work on swing trading anyway though just in case.

Figure if you could swing trade with a 55% win rate at say about a 3:1 profit to loss, with large enough size you would have no issue with an ftt, and this is possible.
 
bjw said:
Imo the chances of the tax happening on a big scale in the next 3-5 years are infinitely smaller than they were earlier in this thread. Obama is definitely not going to implement one any time soon, and Europe is in a dead-lock. Expect that deadlock to last with Cameron being re-elected. Not a time to worry too much...
More...

The time to worry is well in advance of danger so that you can plan for it and avoid the danger when it arrives. A thoughtful trader might decide not to waste the next 3-5 years developing a HFT system that might be obsolete by go live. He might choose to develop a different kind of trading system that can sustain a trading tax.
 
bjw said:
Imo the chances of the tax happening on a big scale in the next 3-5 years are infinitely smaller than they were earlier in this thread. Obama is definitely not going to implement one any time soon, and Europe is in a dead-lock. Expect that deadlock to last with Cameron being re-elected. Not a time to worry too much...
More...


I agree. I don't believe the U.S. has an appetite for something like this. It could happen in Europe, but they're such a trainwreck with so many other things to work out, I would say it's only 25% likely to happen there in the next 5 years.

The U.S. is at least another 8 years or so from being in a position where a FTT would be likely.
 
Xenomorph said:
The time to worry is well in advance of danger so that you can plan for it and avoid the danger when it arrives. A thoughtful trader might decide not to waste the next 3-5 years developing a HFT system that might be obsolete by go live. He might choose to develop a different kind of trading system that can sustain a trading tax.
More...

Yes this is why I suggest everyone who takes daytrading seriously(actually does this for a living) ALSO learn how to be a profitable swing trader, if you can swing trade profitably with a large enough win/loss ratio(55% or so) with a solid profit per trade you're fine even with an ftt, even if it's large.

By swing trade I'm talking 4 days-3 months(max) holds here with good size.
 
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Xenomorph said:
The time to worry is well in advance of danger so that you can plan for it and avoid the danger when it arrives. A thoughtful trader might decide not to waste the next 3-5 years developing a HFT system that might be obsolete by go live. He might choose to develop a different kind of trading system that can sustain a trading tax.
More...

anyone that needs 3-5 years to develop a HFT system from scratch in this time and age has a lot bigger things to worry about than any FTT making his or her system obsolete. yes, the system you will create now will be obsolete in 3-5 years, and no, it won't be because of any FTT.
 
Hold tight, I have been following this tax since day one, if it were simply a case of that we would all have been out of business for several years right now. Not all governments and members of the public are blind to the positives of the markets, the uk public has just rejected the most left wing government since the 70s, they did so by giving the party pushing it the worst vote share since 1987!
(If only the french were so bright!)

Xenomorph said:
My guess is that the tax will happen. The general public hates traders and thinks people who speculate are worthless and evil. The government thinks trading (like poker) is a complete waste of the work force. The big rub is that large institutional traders will probably get to skirt such a tax, at least to some degree.
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bjw said:
Imo the chances of the tax happening on a big scale in the next 3-5 years are infinitely smaller than they were earlier in this thread. Obama is definitely not going to implement one any time soon, and Europe is in a dead-lock. Expect that deadlock to last with Cameron being re-elected. Not a time to worry too much...
More...

So true. There was one scary moment : when Gordon Brown said in 2009 he supported that tax...From then it was a downhill.
 
If Hilary Clinton or Jeb Bush get into office there's no chance of an FTT for their term as well. Hilary is very friendly with wall street and so is the Bush family.

They're probably the top candidates and the republicans have control of the house barring any unforeseen craziness until around 2024, and it would take a solid year for an FTT to go through all the motions as well not to mention all the opposition from the financial sector lobbying to get it revoked, plus I'm sure at least a few politicians have some common sense and could see what's happened to the market/economy in Sweden once it was enacted. There's absolutely no chance this goes over in the next fifteen-twenty or so years, even in the event of a financial crisis like the flash crash in 2010 or the recession.

Also Bernie Sander and Elizabeth Warren are batshit crazy, and the fact that they want to enact this shows how little they understand, or perhaps they're just pandering to the lowest common denominator(see twitter) for votes.
 
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