I am not surprised that Germany and France - drivers of the fiscal compact, banking union and the powers controlling the PIIGS bailouts - could lean on Italy, Spain any many of the other EC-11 to sign on to their FTT move-forward discussions. We all doubted that Italy and Spain could really hold out and figured they would fold.
The Finnish FM tried to convince her parliament that a yes vote at this juncture was not really a yes vote for FTT, but rather for a seat at the negotiating table to craft FTT terms. Many in the EU said they are okay with FTT providing everyone does it and they don't ring fence themselves into a competitive disadvantage. Estonia thought Finland was in and they are not, so now they have cold feet. If all Nordic countries are out of FTT, it leaves Estonia exposed.
For sure Germany and France have the power to keep advancing FTT discussions and proposals, but in the end, can they really pass an EC-9 or 11-wide FTT deal? Especially, an FTT with extra-territorial bite? We all agree that if they have that bite, they probably won't get QMV for passage. Without that bite, they just ring fence themselves for disadvantage.
Nothing has really changed yet, just kicking this problem FTT can down the road. The devil is in the details. They haven't agreed on where the revenues go and how they will spend the money, either. Why the huge fuss? It's not taxing the banks, it's forging the first EU tax. For sure, they want every member to pay that tax, too.
Expect litigation as well. This is too big and too unprecedented inside a political minefield.