Quote from andohmeeta:
Does anyone have any technical knowledge on the historical reliability of the Rasmussen daily Presidential Tracking Poll? At this stage, is the 48% Romney 44% Obama a potential swing indicator?
The presidential election is still a tossup, but right now congress is key for the FTT. All tax legislation has to go through the House Ways & Means Committee and the Senate Finance Committee. As long as Republicans control the House of Representatives the FTT won't see the light of the day. If the Democrats take control the FTT will be front-and-center on day one.
Regarding polling, most of the polls today are of registered voters and not "likely voters" so I'm not sure how accurate they are. After the party conventions this summer there will be fewer undecided voters, the polling will shift to "likely voters" and it will be a better predictor of the final outcome.