1/4% Tax on all stock trades pushed in NY Times today

[tomdavis]

Quote from Rantany:

Maybe she still can't persuade Philipp Rösler, the Vice Chancellor of Germany? (See my former post about this):

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3403655#post3403655

Or perhaps, and this is just a guess on my part, maybe Merkel did the math and didn't like what she saw.

At the end of 2011, this is how countries had lined up on the FTT:

EUROPEAN COUNTRIES AGAINST THE FTT:

EU-27 countries against:
(1) UK
(2) Sweden
(3) Czech Republic
(4) Romania
(5) Bulgaria

EZ-17 countries against:
(6) Luxembourg [??? PM and FM not in agreement]
(7) Malta
(8) Cypress
(9) Ireland
(10) Slovenia

Leaning against:
(11) Netherlands [neutral, but recent Ministry of Economic Affairs report recommends against the FTT]
(12) Spain [position of newly-elected government]

................

Within the last week, both Denmark and Italy said they support the FTT, but only if it's EU-27.

If we take the 10 countries against, add the 2 leaning against and then add Denmark and Italy, that adds up to 14 countries against and 13 countries in favor.

Perhaps Merkel is now trying to prevent the FTT from coming to a vote because she can't even get a simple majority of countries to unconditionally support it. After all her brow beating and arm twisting, it would be a real embarrassment for her to not even be able to get a majority of countries to say yes to the FTT.

Maybe this is just wishful thinking on my part, but perhaps Merkel's decided that rather than risk a humiliating defeat, she'll retreat and try again some other time.

 

[tortoise]

Quote from Xspurt:

Oh please, please, please Mr. Sarkozy, go right ahead and introduce FTT in France. You can have it all to yourself and be the pioneer.

Does anyone trade the Paris Bourse anyway?

 

[Rantany]

Quote from tomdavis:

Or perhaps, and this is just a guess on my part, maybe Merkel did the math and didn't like what she saw.

Actually, i think she already did the math some time ago (she couldn't be that ignorant). Also ECOFIN last month gave a good initial impression of the positions of the member states.
I think that since then, she (and Semeta, Barnier, etc.) has put maximum pressure on the countries which are (leaning) against the FTT (the countries on your list), but with not much success, and that she indeed now finally realizes that a sufficient majority of FTT proponents could not be achieved.
This, plus the 'threat' of Philipp Rösler (no EZ, only EU-wide FTT or I will not support it), could be the explanation for her eventual decision to retreat (for now). At least, I hope so

 

[tomdavis]

Quote from Rantany:

Actually, i think she already did the math some time ago (she couldn't be that ignorant). Also ECOFIN last month gave a good initial impression of the positions of the member states.
I think that since then, she (and Semeta, Barnier, etc.) has put maximum pressure on the countries which are (leaning) against the FTT (the countries on your list), but with not much success, and that she indeed now finally realizes that a sufficient majority of FTT proponents could not be achieved.
This, plus the 'threat' of Philipp Rösler (no EZ, only EU-wide FTT or I will not support it), could be the explanation for her eventual decision to retreat (for now). At least, I hope so

This might be a good time to force the EU-FTT to a formal vote so everyone could see how many countries are against it. If Germany's not supporting it, France may be the only country voting Oui.

 

[Rantany]

I'm not sure about Belgium, Austria, (and maybe Greece), but that would be great.

Never underestimate the power of unwilling little, but persistent countries. I think Merkel did

 

[TraDaToR]

Quote from sheda:

im also interested to see how they can " ban " corporations based inthe EZ from moving to London

There will be tremendous pressure where it counts, i.e BNP Paribas and Société Générale... They can't just elect domicile in the UK for their trading units like that. They will have a simple choice to do, Either try to continue trading and relocate but they will be in constant legal battle with France( even with clever structures ), or simply abandon trading. It's stupid because some of their international desks were good and they will have to close them as soon as the tax is introduced.

I wonder what will happen to Newedge too, 'cause it was created by Socgen and Credit Agricole I think and it was a great success. I don't know if the legal entity is US but if France wants to tax their transactions, they will have no other choice than to liquidate their business.

 

[sculptor66]

Quote from Xspurt:

Oh please, please, please Mr. Sarkozy, go right ahead and introduce FTT in France. You can have it all to yourself and be the pioneer.

Exactly. If there is no way to completely avert the introduction of an FTT, it's seond best if one country introduces it unilaterally.

When it fails in a spectacular way - and it will - it will set an ugly example for the whole world to see. A G7 nation burning down their financial markets, causing falling tax revenues and suffering in their general economy.

People and politicians may be ignorant of history (Sweden), but they will not ignore this.

This would put the FTT off the table again for many years, even decades.

Unfortunately, the major downsides to this are that people in France will suffer and, even worse, the inflicted damage could also escalate the European cirisis, making it even more probable that the whole continent melts down.

 

[sheda]

Quote from TraDaToR:

There will be tremendous pressure where it counts, i.e BNP Paribas and Société Générale... They can't just elect domicile in the UK for their trading units like that. They will have a simple choice to do, Either try to continue trading and relocate but they will be in constant legal battle with France( even with clever structures ), or simply abandon trading. business.

European leaders are not alone in criticizing the French position. The head of BNP Paribas said that if France is the only country to adopt this tax, “the corresponding operations to relocate” in other states that have not taken the plunge. But Baudoin Prot is not partisan to the extent of a European tax because it would lead to the same problem. “I am opposed to this tax on a single because it can create for the limited economic zone that will adopt a factor of relocation and non-competitive,” said he. He said only a tax on a global scale would be effective. What seems far from over given the reluctance of the United States and China.

http://sfluxe.com/2012/01/06/tobin-the-rider-of-france-annoys-europe/

 

[slumdog]

Prime Minister David Cameron has said for the first time he would veto a European-wide financial transaction tax unless it was imposed globally, deepening a confrontation with European Union heavyweights France and Germany.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...on-I-will-veto-financial-transaction-tax.html


While France may push ahead alone, Germany and Italy have stuck to the idea of an EU-wide tax.

..

Prime Minister Mario Monti has said.
"We are prepared to work on it but never, and I mean never, if it was to apply only to Italy. By contrast, at a time when it is in our interest to cooperate closely with Germany and France, why not," he said.

 

[sheda]

Sarkozy's promise to bring in a financial transaction tax even if the rest of Europe doesn't follow has pleased David Hillman, spokesperson for the Robin Hood Tax campaign:


Good on the French for standing up to the might of the casino banking sector – it's more than can be said of our own Government. The UK is blocking a tax that could raise billions, not for the Brussels coffers, but to keep teachers and nurses in jobs in the UK and to help those here and abroad hit hard by a financial crisis they did nothing to cause.

That is a new one guys, its now also going to pay teachers and nurses wages...