Darn, FTT may be becoming a political football in the EU and EZ, like the Bush-era tax cuts are back home in the U.S.
I fear some core-EZ members who are working closely on the fiscal-union strategies - Germany, France and Italy - may forge ahead with FTT in their own national budgets first, to start the snow ball rolling down the hill.
New Italian Premier Mario Monti just included FTT in his new crisis-era austerity and budget measures. France just put FTT on its bill agenda too. And, Germany may do the same next. They want to demonstrate that they are willing to take the heat and pass FTT even if itâs not EU-wide or EZ-wide. Plus, they can keep the tax revenues this way too. They don't have big money-centers and probably can weather the FTT carnage, whereas London cannot. If Cameron is ever boxed into FTT, he should keep all the tax revenue for the UK and not share it with the EU. That's a good rebuttal for him.
The cabalâs plan may be that after the core passes FTT individually in their own countries first, they can better pressure less-favorable EZ members to pass FTT in the entire EZ-17. With that request, they offer up the FTT revenues to support EZ bailout measures and charitable requests, rather than keeping it for their home country treasuries.
If EU-27 or EZ-17 countries don't vote yes on the treaty changes for the new fiscal-union penalties, which may now be added-on to with FTT measures, then Franco-German-Italian forces may threaten the abstainers with no bailouts or support if contagion reaches their sovereign bond markets. How they can do that legally or based on treaties, remains to be seen.
But, we are now down to hardball tactics, and what we experienced in the U.S. with the debt-ceiling debate and hostage taking measures may be just a warm-up act to this euro crisis and stand-off negotiations.
Yes, Cameron needs to hold firm, he is carrying our no-FTT flame. U.S. Secretary Geithner will probably support Cameron on this front, and withhold the U.S.-heavy IMF bazooka funds, since Geithner doesn't want the FTT snow-ball either.
It sort of feels like this snowball is more like German tanks starting to rollover Europe again, with Italian and defeated-French axis members. Same old playbook, the UK is the lone island of freedom, and I hope the U.S. doesn't wait too long before entering this battle. It's time for Secretary Geithner and President Obama to take off their kid gloves with the Germans and draw U.S./UK allies lines in the quick sand too. Be firm on no FTT, opening the ECB bank, and handling the EU bailouts inside the EU. Say a firm no to the IMF taking a leading role, as the American taxpayer is at risk for 17%. The U.S. is helping enough with the Federal Reserve already. Obama is tough on Republicans, how about bringing some of that toughness to the Germans too?
