Thanks Tom, good points as always.
I was thinking a EZ-only FTT is financial-market suicide for the EZ, just when they need speculators to buy PIIGS debt, as MF Global mistakenly did too early.
Much of the 20% of financial-transactions being booked outside of London in the EU - 80% are in London - will move to London too. This will cause a banking shock in Paris and Frankfurt. How much more can German and French banks take with this meltdown already? The French banks are already on borrowed-time.
If the Germans and French play hard-ball with the UK, trying a back door EU-wide FTT VAT or an EZ FTT that explodes in London too (with counter party reach), then relations between the UK and Germany/France will be horrible - just when the Germans and French need the UK to cooperate on the fiscal union budget and spending controls.
Just like President Obama had to table his bank levy in the U.S. due to bigger political battles, the Germans and French will hopefully table FTT soon too. Wishful thinking, but as they like to say in Washington - hopeful.
Tom, just as you point out, with 17 EZ members, there is bound to be one that says no to FTT. How much arm-twisting capital will the Germans with Merkel have left?
I was thinking a EZ-only FTT is financial-market suicide for the EZ, just when they need speculators to buy PIIGS debt, as MF Global mistakenly did too early.
Much of the 20% of financial-transactions being booked outside of London in the EU - 80% are in London - will move to London too. This will cause a banking shock in Paris and Frankfurt. How much more can German and French banks take with this meltdown already? The French banks are already on borrowed-time.
If the Germans and French play hard-ball with the UK, trying a back door EU-wide FTT VAT or an EZ FTT that explodes in London too (with counter party reach), then relations between the UK and Germany/France will be horrible - just when the Germans and French need the UK to cooperate on the fiscal union budget and spending controls.
Just like President Obama had to table his bank levy in the U.S. due to bigger political battles, the Germans and French will hopefully table FTT soon too. Wishful thinking, but as they like to say in Washington - hopeful.
Tom, just as you point out, with 17 EZ members, there is bound to be one that says no to FTT. How much arm-twisting capital will the Germans with Merkel have left?