Quote from Robert A. Green:
The German push for a FTT is conditional on eurozone adoption, not just in Germany. France will most likely say no FTT and delay bank taxes of any kind. That should hold off a FTT.
The UK already opted out of some Eurozone bailouts, so they are very unlikely to embrace the German rash-agenda, like banning naked short selling without getting EU-consensus first.
With meltdown 2.0 in the works, and some French banks probably in trouble - rumors of a huge Soc Gen derivatives loss last week and weaker capital ratios in EU banks versus US banks - it's doubtful the French will agree to tar and feather their banks with an industry-killing FTT. For sure, not if the UK, US, Canada and Switzerland won't pass a FTT too. The French will be more willing to deficit spend without pay go with new taxes._
The Germans are now locked into - and won't budge - from their pan-euro fiscal and monetary agenda. Others have talked and taken the lead and the outcome is unacceptable to the biggest economic force in the EU. It's going to be German-led austerity rather than Anglo-American Keynsian- deficit spending of printed money. The Germans won't dare chance worthless euros like 1930s marks.
As I have predicted for 6 months, the Germans want a euro-federal tax to pay for euro spending, including financial emergences. The French talk alot about the EU, but in the end care about their own industry and budget first. They don't want to pool a bank levy into a eurofund, again as the Germans prefer. In most cases, the French have said they prefer the UK approach to bank taxes.
A meltdown may forstall a FTT but it can also bring one on. High speed traders are inviting a FTT-grinding of their wheels. Public anger in meltdown 2.0 will be much greater and increase the odds of FTT. If France needs a bailout and German support they will most likely give in to the German agenda and say yes to a eurozone FTT.
Regime change won't dampen anger towards banks and BP oil. I am getting a little concerned again. Hopefully the euro bailout works, France holds in the euro distress and Germany calms down.
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