1/4% Tax on all stock trades pushed in NY Times today

Quote from MrPowerBallad:

Some reports out today suggesting that Brown is gaining strongly in polls and might pull it off. Any thoughts?

If repeated at a national level, that would give Labour 317 seats – just nine short of an overall majority – with the Tories holding 263 seats.

Such a result would likely give Brown the authority to form a government and stay on as Prime Minister. [/i]

:confused:
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I seriously doubt Brown will be able to cling on. For me, its no better than a 100-1 shot.

What is possible is a hung parliament (no clear majority for Conservatives) with Cameron then almost certain to be PM - my understanding is that he would assume this position if his party had the largest majority. His party would then probably do everything to form a coalition with the 3rd party Liberal Democrats. It would suit both parties and I think both would be happy to see the end of Brown and 'New Labour'..

My guess in this situation is that Brown would then be booted out from within. The vultures within the party would then emerge and you'd probably see new a new Labour leader. There's no pressure on Brown in the run up to the election but he's almost certainly out of here once the vote is cast. The only reason Brown clung on to power is because nobody wants to be leader of the party when they face almost certain defeat. I would do the same if I was contender to take his job. Much better to remould the party after defeat and a fresh start (even if no-one could ever say this of course)

I still think a Conservative majority is the most likely outcome. The media would love to see a exciting close battle, but the debate hasn't even begun. Cameron will probably be very strong in debate, he's more than a match for Brown here and he's got a strong-ish team.

There is this theory that even with a large % majority the Conservatives would not obtain a majority when translated into seats. I'm sure there are some assumptions and maths behind this that seem valid...in theory, maybe...but in reality I will bet against this any day. I've seen pollsters get it wrong before. Most people want a change. The UK electoral system hardly ever produces a hung parliament, and there is no way Labour can win this time, which leaves only one outcome...defeat for Brown and a Conservative victory.

But of course, things can change quickly in politics as in markets but Cameron is very careful not to make mistakes. Actually I think he'll surprise a lot of people and do a good job if he does win, he could be like Blair and be on top for ten years or so..

Brown taking us to war with Argentina over the Falklands would probably be the only event that might upset this scenario.:eek: He is a bit of a dick so stranger things have happened, but he's probably not that much of a dick.
 
Quote from TraDaToR:

Still 84 % tories victory on Intrade: http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/#

I don't know how politics work in UK. What percentage does the tories need for Brown to leave?
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I don't know the exact numbers, I read somewhere that Conservatives need 10% more votes than Labour to get a seat majority. But I doubt it needs to be that high. Maybe 6% more, something like that...

And even if we get a hung parliament that probably doesn't mean Brown will stay on, unless his party gets more votes, which is highly unlikely. He'll probably be kicked out from within his party.
 
Quote from benwm:

The media would love to see a exciting close battle, but the debate hasn't even begun. Cameron will probably be very strong in debate, he's more than a match for Brown here and he's got a strong-ish team.
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I agree. The Tories are currently keeping their powder dry, which is giving Labour a little bit of breathing room - for now. When the campaign begins in earnest all their ammunition will be unleashed. I think Brown is going to find it pretty hellish being held to account for his record and his government's record over the last 12 years. I'd expect to see the Tories widen their lead during the campaign.
 
From what I've been reading the main reason why the polls have been narrowing is because people do not see a clear policy from the tories nor do the people know exactly what the tories stand up for. Hopefully that should all change now after the party conference.

David cameron cannot rely on Gordan Browns failures as his main arguments in the campaign. It will not be enough to convince the voters to elect the Tories.
 
The AFL-CIO labor federation is pushing for a jobs package far bigger than the $15 billion bill the Senate passed, and it wants to fund the package in part through a tax on securities transactions.

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The labor campaign for the jobs program, called "Jobs Now Make Wall Street Pay," will try to harness voter anger at the government's bank bailouts. The group plans to emphasize the billions of dollars banks received in bailout funds, while unemployment remains stubbornly at 9.7%. The grass-roots mobilization is set to begin mid-March and include hundreds of rallies, town-hall meetings and other events around the country.

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Some observers said movement on a transaction tax was unlikely this year, but that it could be part of recommendations that are supposed to be made by the administration's deficit-reduction commission by December and could be acted on next year.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...87863324405210.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_news
 
Looks like this is not going away. I never thought this could ever pass but with the desperation for revenue so great as out gov't spends trillions they don't have i'm not so sure anymore. I'm worried that the actual % of traders who this would hurt the most is a small real # that this is the easiest thing to pass.The whole idea of the bank tax was to divert attention away for this but i've heard little of the bank tax lately.To end this stock tax once and for all we need a huge republican victory in nov.
 
Quote from seasideheights:

The AFL-CIO labor federation is pushing for a jobs package far bigger than the $15 billion bill the Senate passed, and it wants to fund the package in part through a tax on securities transactions.

...

The labor campaign for the jobs program, called "Jobs Now Make Wall Street Pay," will try to harness voter anger at the government's bank bailouts. The group plans to emphasize the billions of dollars banks received in bailout funds, while unemployment remains stubbornly at 9.7%. The grass-roots mobilization is set to begin mid-March and include hundreds of rallies, town-hall meetings and other events around the country.

...

Some observers said movement on a transaction tax was unlikely this year, but that it could be part of recommendations that are supposed to be made by the administration's deficit-reduction commission by December and could be acted on next year.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...87863324405210.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_news
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It's almost a foregone conclusion that the deficit commission will recommend a FTT (esp with Andy Stern onboard) but I still think a FTT is highly unlikely to ever come to fruition . A VAT tax on the other hand could happen here though...

-Guru
 
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