Quote from TraDaToR:All contributions should be sent by February 1, 2010 to
IMFConsultation@imf.org[/B]
I've just contributed a short analysis showing how quickly the Laffer curve peaks in case of the Tobin tax. The British case shows that it would be essentially pointless (no additional revenue would be raised) to tax US stock transactions at a rate exceeding the current level of marginal transaction costs. Preferrence for 'volume-neutral' Tobin tax rates was already expressed by the IMF (see Spahn, Paul, 1996. The Tobin Tax and Exchange Rate Stability; Finance and Development 33 (June), 24-27, which was also incidentally the likely source of the now painfully obsolete 0.02 tax rate proposed by DeFazio for futures).
Here's the abstract of my analysis:
"This article uses a simple heuristic method of Campbell and Froot (1994) to estimate a 'volume-neutral' Tobin tax rate for US equity transactions (i.e. one for which static tax revenue projections are very likely to be realized in practice), on the basis of the existing marginal cost of stock market participants (proxied by the lowest retail brokerage commissions). The main finding is that a 'volume neutral' tax rate of 0.014% would raise the same amount of tax revenue ($14 billion dollars anually) as a 'normative' (punitive) tax rate of 0.250% (11 to 19 billion dollars anually), but without the need to drain a significant proportion of the existing liquidity from the markets."
As you see, the $150 figure sponsored by the DeFazio camp was more or less 10 times overestimated, simply because it was 'static', unrealistically assuming no behavioral response at all... no tax avoidance whatsoever, no CFDs, no overseas trading, no offshoring, no binary options... how likely is that?

I mean they should know better... they have the British case. Even research shows (see e.g. a Jackson and OâDonnell, 1985 and Ericsson and Lindgren, 1992) that a 10% increase in transaction costs would reduce taxable volume by 10-17%! This could be even partly responsible for this year's reduction in market volumes (the SEC 'Section 31 fee', which can be treated as a transaction tax proxy, has been hiked 5-fold from its 2008 level. Luckily next year it is going to be cut by half).
Happy New Year everyone!