Quote from rsikit: There has not been an instrument that he forgot to tax!
Per-instrument exemptions will be the hardest ones to justify. In fact, if they ever come up with a production version of the tax, it will most likely contain not only activity-based exemption for market makers (i.e. by revenue, mostly for banks) but also per-instrument exemptions for Forex (again mostly banks, but for reasons of market impact) and Treasuries (guess why). Here's the suggested response.
Mr X, are you sure you have thought through all the implications of including derivatives in the transactions tax? Derivatives are instruments whose price is derived (hence the name, so options and futures are already included, may be sensible not to mention them twice) derived from some underlying (base) instruments, which are intentionally left untaxed, such as:
- interest rates / Treasury notes (exempt for reasons of fiscal policy),
- foreign exchange, i.e. Forex (exempt probably because the CRS Report for Congress from 2004 concluded that taxing Forex would not be practicable - tax rates which can be used there without excessive market impact, 0.00006%, would yield too little revenue),
- hybrid instruments, such as exchange-traded promissory notes (ETNs) which derive their value from a basket of futures contracts - are these taxed stocks? or untaxed bonds? or perhaps taxed derivatives?
Taxing one form of the same instrument and leaving untaxed another (such as exempting Forex while taxing Forex futures) would lead to inintended consequences, including not only benign ones such as fiscal arbitrage performed by the lucky exempted few at the at the cost of the paying public, but - more likely - to the total abandonment of the taxed form (e.g. the volume dropping by half in exchange-traded currency futures, very much like trading in Swedish stocks, half of which started trading in London after they were taxed), with an obvious impact on the projected fiscal revenues. What if all taxed instruments, including US stocks are re-invented in a tax-neutral, very low-capital-intensive but highly-volatile form? What if exchanges come up with some completely new form of very volatile instruments that will not require much taxable capital, while retaining the usual profit potential for the traders? Who will give our stocks those penny-tight spreads if every short-term trader switches to an untaxed venue such as Forex, art, gold bars, or simply an offshore stock exchange in some now suddenly 'rogue' state? Will you also ban international capital movements?
And how about the issue of tax fairness of specifically excluding derivatives which help finance the Government debt? Because these will surely get a special exemption as well, just like the market making firms and Forex trading banks? Won't it then become apparent that your tax is aimed solely at those who cannot fight your mighty powers, i.e. at those who generate most jobs in every economy: at small businesses and sole traders. Because well-capitalized firms and the Government have already secured appropriate exemptions to protect their interests (banks for Forex/market making and Government for Treasuries trading).
So is there really any non-populist, rational basis for this tax? Or is it entirely about gaining political capital at the cost of the least powerful members of the electorate - those small individual traders who dare to compete with the big banks to fulfill their American dream of financial independence free from Government-sponsored employment programmes? Because the 'big boys' - market making firms, Forex trading banks, and Treasury selling Uncle Sam seems to have already created cozy shelters from this tax. How fair is that?
Where can we finally see the scientific basis for this tax? Because the original Tobin (1974) version, i.e. the tax on foreign exchange transactions, 30 years later is no longer a practicable idea, according to for instance the aforementioned report for Congress from 2004 (Order Code RL32266). So please answer how much revenue is it projected to raise? Will the additional revenues surpass those lost on the capital gains tax? And was the additional unemployment in the financial industry and among individual traders duly taken into account, including its multiplier effect on the rest of the economy?