Let's look at this from high atop the mountain. He are some of my thoughts:
- Obama, who purported himself to be anti-Wall Street during his Presidential campaign, was full of crap. He has done next to nothing in terms of Wall Street reform, and still has these Big Boys (Goldman, e.g.) in his back pocket;
- The average Joe will see this tax as a good thing, since naively they will think that this is a tax on Wall Street;
- Needless to say, this tax will hurt retail traders that do this for a living. Undoubtedly, it will put a great money of them out of business;
- Although institutions still make up a majority of daily volume, there will be decreased liquidity in the markets at large. This will result in larger spreads, and more violent moves in the markets (on events). This could actually be a lucrative opportunity for day traders that ride this tax out;
- Congress couldn't manage themselves out of a paper bag (this has been a phenomon for the last 9 years), so how on earth does Pelosi think that she can engineer a tax outside of the US borders ? Seriously, does she even have the remotest clue ?
Given the dire nature of the state of our leveraged economy, I believe that the govt will be open to any sort of tax increase. And of course, the Big Boys that provide government with contribution cash flow, will all get exemptions. I mean, why should Goldman have to pay more than a 1 % Marginal tax rate on 6 BB profit ?? Welcome to the world of Socialism.