Quote from zdreg: posts about CDFs and binary options and knockout options and US residents opening accounts overseas are absolute nonsense. somethings in life cannot be adapted to. if conditions do worsen tremendously you have to move on and consider some other way to make a living.
Traders won't change their noise- and overtrading habits easily. The solution must therefore come from within the industry, i mean: exchanges - back to the drawing board!
Circumventing a tax on the amount of trading would first and foremost require reducing the number of trades. The new product will therefore have to actively discourage overtrading. It should be simply impossible trade in and out of it more frequently than say once a week, because of, say, very wide bid/ask spreads. But it will be completely ignored by traders, unless its price is sufficiently predictable (95%+ win rate) to allow the trader to discard stop-losses entirely, sitting patiently through each and every drawdown, with the confidence that the losing trade will at least break even. If the product is too liquid, they will be closing it prematurely (via 'stop loss' orders, which are essentially barrier options very highly likely to be triggered), incurring the new capital-gains-and-losses tax.
Moreover, the new product should have a very wide daily range, comparable with the taxable capital requirements (not with the maintenance margin, but with the notional value itself). So if the price of the new product will move $1k per day, then no more that $4k of taxable notional value should be required to maintain the position overnight, so that the tax on capital could be turned into a tax on profit (under the above assumption of the nearly 100% win rate). This would reduce the adverse impact of the proposed transaction tax to a mere 100% hike in the capital gains tax (making it literally a double taxation initiative).
Please judge for yourselves how realistic these assumptions are:
- of something with huge bid/ask spreads being profitable to someone else than the market maker,
- of wide bid/ask spreads not being mutually exclusive with liquidity and exchange-wide trading volume,
- of holding periods as long as weekly being acceptable risk for trading proprietary capital (or the risk managers of prop trading desks getting used to prohibitively large drawdowns and huge execution risk posed by wide bid/ask spreads),
- of a futures exchange coming up with a new product that would be created with the express purpose of making customers trade less (but not necessarily in low volumes),
- of the 95%+ win rate being passed to the customer, rather than consumed by the brokerages via their prop trading desks,
- of actually achieving the said 95%+ win rate without adversely skewed payoffs (such as the 1 : 20 avg_win-to-avg_loss-ratio known from shorting options), and last but not least,
- of 30% returns on investment not leading to widespread overleveraging from external sources of credit and again being passed to the consumer by the brokerages without 'profit sharing' hedge-fund-style 'commissions'.
You may say I'm a dreamer, but I strongly believe there are professional traders out there who can fulfill at least some of the above criteria consistently. Exchanges would like to hear from you, guys! But wait, I've just remembered: offering low-volume products is just not in their interest... Neither is it in the brokers' interest. Neither would any serious trader reveal such strategies, not even to a family member... So the entire hope rests in a naive amateur of a trader with an external source of funding, ready to say goodbye to his unique holy grail in the interest of the common good. Reader: do not laugh it off, it would be yet another prediction of yours...