Quote from zdreg:
"I doubt France will surrender this time."
that is a great statement. you should have written this like THIS. it will end the same way as world war I and II with France's ignominious surrender.
vive le france.
My wishful thinking is that France will say "no" to loss of sovereignty to a German-dominated Brussels on the fiscal compact and banking union. France is keeping their own FTT revenues for themselves at the moment. Ironic that FTT revenues come at the expense of other general tax revenues, so EC FTT adopters will really be turning over current tax revenue to Brussels, not new revenue.
France wants Germany to loosen up the money - to quote President Bush - and in return they promise to address Germany's needs down the road. Germany wants capitulation on signing their compacts before taking on the risk of loss.
Traders are not rooting for a failure. Yes, if there is failure, there won't be a banking union and it won't be financed with FTT. Failure means enhanced cooperation on FTT probably falls by the wayside, too.
Traders are rooting for dealing with reality, which is not this federalization of deficits and debt, and tax hikes like FTT to deal with major underlying competitive problems.