This EU, EZ and euro debt crisis has stress-tested the EU treaties and governance and there are huge problems that need correction. How can you have a common euro currency in only parts of the EU - but not in the money-center London - and provide all EU members easy access to debt and trade credit, without having common taxes, regulation and enforcement? It's a recipe for run away government spending and debt.
German exporters made a fortune selling to PIIGS on euro-denominated debt and now the German government wants UK banks to pay that debt bill by charging them FTT. This reminds me of the US government and GSEs creating sub prime borrowers and then asking traders and banks to foot the bill with FTT. PIIGS are subprime countries.
EU-centrists need fiscal integration and that's a huge and probably unfeasible undertaking at this juncture. The unattractive choice is go all in on EU fiscal union, or have PIIGS bankruptcies. That's not inviting to voters and you can't avoid referendums for passing a new fiscal union. Fiscal union will fail with voters and that process would take too long anyway. It requires unanimous-referendum consent, and a 5% chance of passage would be overstating the odds.
VAT indirect FTT will be on the front lines of this fiscal union effort and act of desperation, and it's going to fail and maybe bring down the whole EU and EZ. Democrats and Republicans are at historic odds in the US, but we are stuck together. Is the UK stuck together with France and Germany? Is Germany stuck together with Italy and Greece? Probably not.
From the perch of our microcosm FTT, it looks like the EU is going to fracture more in 2012.
German exporters made a fortune selling to PIIGS on euro-denominated debt and now the German government wants UK banks to pay that debt bill by charging them FTT. This reminds me of the US government and GSEs creating sub prime borrowers and then asking traders and banks to foot the bill with FTT. PIIGS are subprime countries.
EU-centrists need fiscal integration and that's a huge and probably unfeasible undertaking at this juncture. The unattractive choice is go all in on EU fiscal union, or have PIIGS bankruptcies. That's not inviting to voters and you can't avoid referendums for passing a new fiscal union. Fiscal union will fail with voters and that process would take too long anyway. It requires unanimous-referendum consent, and a 5% chance of passage would be overstating the odds.
VAT indirect FTT will be on the front lines of this fiscal union effort and act of desperation, and it's going to fail and maybe bring down the whole EU and EZ. Democrats and Republicans are at historic odds in the US, but we are stuck together. Is the UK stuck together with France and Germany? Is Germany stuck together with Italy and Greece? Probably not.
From the perch of our microcosm FTT, it looks like the EU is going to fracture more in 2012.