New bank levy is an âinsurance premiumâ for unallowable-uninsured-debt financed assets, on too-big to fail banksâ balance sheets. Will they capture bank SIVs and other off balance sheet debt-financed assets too? The leaks of the bank levy plan (in FT) say it excludes equity (not leveraged) and FDIC (previously) insured deposits. You canât charge an insurance premium twice.
This Obama administration bank levy plan addresses the core problem of the meltdown in my view. As the meltdown got underway, every level of backstop failed. First, diversification of risk through packaged CDOs, then weak ratings and underwriting, undercapitalized insurance, weaker reinsurance, and finally the risk was concentrated at the Wizard of London Oz AIG Financial Products â a guarantor mirage writing swaps with any takers with a pulse and pocket book. There was no true back stop other than central banks and governments.
After TARP bailouts, like any smart Wall Streeter (which they have learned a lot about this past year), government now realizes it's true value as the back stop of last resort and it's now forging a proper formula and billing approach for this service. Yes, their price may be too high and their process too heavy handed, but they are probably they only counterparty with more power than Goldman Sachs itself.
If this bank levy insurance premium succeeds â and itâs too early to tell - banks will simply have a higher carrying cost for taking uninsured debt-financed asset positions. As always, there will be unintended consequences. Will that cause some banks to take even greater risk to pay for these additional position costs, and will it freeze others from these activities all together?
In Wall Street logic, how is this concept wrong? Itâs not a tax; itâs not a levy, its Superman getting his insurance premium.
The pundits and politicians have successfully (so far) re-branded a bank tax (tax increase), to bank levy (punishment), to bank insurance - on items that were uninsured yet came with a moral hazard government back stop.
Yes, government did get mostly paid back on TARP bailouts, but they did not get a Warren Buffet type Goldman-deal and certainly not a spectacular Wall Street type deal either.
Good for the government, they are collecting their share of the bonus loot too and hopefully this puts out all fires.
Read Freakonomics. A childrenâs school wanted parents to pick up children on time, so they passed a late fee charge. Parents figured they could pay the fee and come late and more were late. It had the reverse effect of what they wanted. Will banks skimp on risk management more going forward figuring they are paying good money for a government insurance plan? You have to wonder if the government is just scrambling in its own debt crisis and acting irrationally all together. What makes sense on one hand can cause problems on the other hand.