1-2 ES points a day

For the OP: here is why I said one can make a living making 1 ES a day. Most people forget the power of exponential growth. Also the ES is very liquid, thus there is almost no difference between trading 1 or 100 contracts.

So let's say newbie starts out with 2K and he is going to increase the number of contracts traded at the end of each month, keeping the 1 car for every 2K leverage. He makes 1 ES on average. He can have losing days, even losing week, but at the end of each month he is up 20 ES after commission.

Ready? Let's go:

Gain is 20 x $50 x cars (contracts)

Month: Gain: Capital: Cars traded:
0 0 2K 1
1 1K 3K 1
2 1K 4K 2
3 2K 6K 3
4 3K 9K 4
5 4K 13K 6
6 6K 19K 9

Just after 6 months the capital is increased almost 10 times and he is trading 9 contracts. You see where I am going, right?

Of course there is the added stress of increased possible loss but let's say our newbie has iron balls, and he thinks he started out with 2 K, thus anything above that is playmoney. So he keep pushing:

7 9K 28K 14
8 14K 42K 21
9 21K 63K 31
10 31K 94K 47
11 47K 141K 70
12 70K 211K 105

So our little, ironballed newbie just grew his account from 2 K to 211K, more than 100 times in a YEAR, on a simple 1 ES per day profit....

Of course this was just an exercise but it should give something to think about for starting out traders and keep in mind, 1 ES a day is a very powerfull tool (and not that easy to do) in the hands of someone who knows how to take advantage of it...
 
Quote from AlpineTrout:

Then you're stating that a newbie will have a 100% win rate every day. Is this correct?

It doesn't work that way.
More...

No. what I am saying is his goal is to get 1-2 points per day...he should/would move on if loses on first trade to not overtrade...you agree?
 
Quote from increasenow:

To the ESNewbie and anyone else that can offer thoughts...VERY SERIOUS:

you said you work all day and will program trades...I.e. enter at night or in the early morning...bracket and enter and close out trade etc...that is VERY risky...let me explain...what if you enter and than your stop is "gapped" over etc...you will have a huge loss...I'd really look at this and consider it..TO THE ES PROS:please explain to the ESNEwbie all the "risks with entering orders and not monitoring" etc...VERY serious...please reply ESnewbie and explain to him...thanks...
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ESNEWBIE or pros...someone really needs to address this issue...please PROS, share your insight to help ESnewbie...thanks!
 
Quote from Pekelo:

For the OP: here is why I said one can make a living making 1 ES a day. Most people forget the power of exponential growth. Also the ES is very liquid, thus there is almost no difference between trading 1 or 100 contracts.

So let's say newbie starts out with 2K and he is going to increase the number of contracts traded at the end of each month, keeping the 1 car for every 2K leverage. He makes 1 ES on average. He can have losing days, even losing week, but at the end of each month he is up 20 ES after commission.

Ready? Let's go:

Gain is 20 x $50 x cars (contracts)

Month: Gain: Capital: Cars traded:
0 0 2K 1
1 1K 3K 1
2 1K 4K 2
3 2K 6K 3
4 3K 9K 4
5 4K 13K 6
6 6K 19K 9

Just after 6 months the capital is increased almost 10 times and he is trading 9 contracts. You see where I am going, right?

Of course there is the added stress of increased possible loss but let's say our newbie has iron balls, and he thinks he started out with 2 K, thus anything above that is playmoney. So he keep pushing:

7 9K 28K 14
8 14K 42K 21
9 21K 63K 31
10 31K 94K 47
11 47K 141K 70
12 70K 211K 105

So our little, ironballed newbie just grew his account from 2 K to 211K, more than 100 times in a YEAR, on a simple 1 ES per day profit....

Of course this was just an exercise but it should give something to think about for starting out traders and keep in mind, 1 ES a day is a very powerfull tool (and not that easy to do) in the hands of someone who knows how to take advantage of it...
More...

AWESOME POST--seriously!...I've been trying to say this...with simply 1 ES point per day the potential is unlimited....how many points do you average per day???
 
Quote from Pekelo:

For the OP: here is why I said one can make a living making 1 ES a day. Most people forget the power of exponential growth. Also the ES is very liquid, thus there is almost no difference between trading 1 or 100 contracts.

So let's say newbie starts out with 2K and he is going to increase the number of contracts traded at the end of each month, keeping the 1 car for every 2K leverage. He makes 1 ES on average. He can have losing days, even losing week, but at the end of each month he is up 20 ES after commission.

Ready? Let's go:

Gain is 20 x $50 x cars (contracts)

Month: Gain: Capital: Cars traded:
0 0 2K 1
1 1K 3K 1
2 1K 4K 2
3 2K 6K 3
4 3K 9K 4
5 4K 13K 6
6 6K 19K 9

Just after 6 months the capital is increased almost 10 times and he is trading 9 contracts. You see where I am going, right?

Of course there is the added stress of increased possible loss but let's say our newbie has iron balls, and he thinks he started out with 2 K, thus anything above that is playmoney. So he keep pushing:

7 9K 28K 14
8 14K 42K 21
9 21K 63K 31
10 31K 94K 47
11 47K 141K 70
12 70K 211K 105

So our little, ironballed newbie just grew his account from 2 K to 211K, more than 100 times in a YEAR, on a simple 1 ES per day profit....

Of course this was just an exercise but it should give something to think about for starting out traders and keep in mind, 1 ES a day is a very powerfull tool (and not that easy to do) in the hands of someone who knows how to take advantage of it...
More...

Pekelo,

You hit it on the nail. I did some numbers on the back of a napkin and thats when I decided all I need is an average of 1-2 points a day and in 6-9 months we're talking some serious money. As fearless stated, there seem to be many opportunities throughout the day...it seems if one focuses during high volatility periods the stated goal could be achieved.
 
Ok I will try to be constructive. I guarantee you haven't found a setup that occurs once a day and wins 80% of the time for 1-2 points. Set your goal by month (20 trades) .... If your setup is good you might win 15/20 trades and be up 10 points for the month. For daily profits you need to trade in and out at least a few times per day, and you better be a guru.

Don't try "make it back" after a stop loss. Take it as if it were a new trade. Either it is a good setup, or not. Most likely the extra trade will just cost you commissions.

No problem doing a "bracket trade" - just do not allow it to hold overnight. And, even if you have magic levels for the ES, consider yourself lucky to break 60% winning trades doing this.
 
OK, I will try to be constructive also.

ESn00b, are you insanely wealthy and love to give money away?

Trading a TIC strategy without watching the market?

Trading Pivots as if no one else(namely big bad locals and off floor intraday traders)knew what your PX was?

Maybe they wouldn't try to muscle the market through your stop after that.

ES is a market that trades on panic extremes. Where could you put a stop? The ironic thing is, your sell/buy stop PX is probably where you should have put your buy/sell PX. Maybe you get filled, maybe not. If you do, you've got trade location that you won't get again.

I didn’t read all the posts above me, and you can take or throw away my advice. Doesn’t matter to me. But what you’re thinking about sounds like you’ll be in the 90% YI/YO.

BTW, I’m an off-floor local in 10s & 30s that watches ES tic for tic. I've got my own agenda. I’m not out to screw anyone. I love the game, I trade quiet size, and I play it as it plays out. Day after day.
 
Oh well, while we are on the subject of stops.

Firstly, there is a difference between entering and exiting the ES.

If you chose to enter on limit, your greatest crime is to be unfilled, therefore you make nothing, lose nothing with several million more opportunities offering themselves in your lifetime.
But at least you know that the price you set is devoid of slippage which consumes your profits.

If you exit on limit, you maybe gapped.
Also, if a calamity hits the ES (or CME) you can bet that the price heads south, not north.

So there is a difference between being long or short in the market ... two sets of circumstances and therefore resulting behaviour as it were.

By now you are probably thinking, maybe I should enter on limit and always place my protective stop at market.

That way I have control of my entry and my greatest exit crime now is slippage and not being gapped over.
Yes, I can live with that.

Then, it would be only natural for you to think that I will place my protective stop at market automatically as I am filled.
At least this way I am covered, but I will manage my exit as best I can to limit the loss if the crowd is not filling in behind me.

Oh, and one last thing that I must always, always remember .... remove my protective stop at market when I close out my trade,as it is sitting there like a ticking time bomb.
 
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