'08 volatility compared to past few days
- Thread starter Audi_R8
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As my Ivy League friend always says "This shit's retarded."
Money is literally falling off trees. Pundits are saying to trade small but I say go big or go home.....
All we can hope for is this to continue for YEARS to come. All thanks to the Worldwide Federation of Central Bankers. I'd personally like to thank Ben and the boyz......
There were numerous "rip your face off" rallies and declines in the final hour back in 2008. Someone posted the largest percentage declines/rallies in history the other day. As you might imagine, a significantly large percentage of them occured in the fall of 2008. It was also very interesting for another reason. While prior to 2008, the consensus argument for buying into a crash was that 6 months later the market would be anywhere from 10-20% higher, that logic went out the window..as many of those downswings were simply the pre-cursor to more downside volatility.
One thing that always sort of annoys me is that people get a bit non-chalant if it's not a "crash" ala 1929 or 1987...while the reality is 3-4 days of serious declines are an equivalent percentage decline to a crash. For the majority of long only buy and holds the damage is the same.
Adapt or die.
Sorry for the cavalier response.
Volatility begets volatility hence fat tails. The closer an event to a previous event the stronger the memory---2008 wasn't very long ago. Here's the deal though. We rallied 100% off the lows. Alpha chasers are gonna violently move this around like a pit bull shaking a poodle. Now we could have Central Banker intervention in the form of volatility control. That would be more effective for calming the roiled markets IMHO than just throwing money but there are too many markets and too much money especially given they're on their 100th stimulus and they just create volatility not jobs so to speak.
I'm done I'm spending too much time here but these events get me goin'
The period of 2008 was easier to trade. There was a lot more actual liquidity (open interest) resting in the market to absorb the massive program orders, so price action was more deliberate on the turns and straighter thru the directional pushes.
Now there is a tremendous amount of sideways volatility, abrupt v-turns and deep counter-direction moves due to thin open interest being wiped out by greater demand from the algos.
So now you have to prepare for the rapid v-turns off extremes, anticipate the next directional push but navigate lots of counter-move pullbacks as price moves up or down.
Once you make a few minor adjustments accordingly, the printing presses turn on.
there was that one day when Dow shot up 1000 pts in the last 30 minutes of trading.....essentially 2x today's move over a much shorter time period.