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The probability given by the market to hit $100k by 12/31/2024 is rather 6.4% (binary call approximated by a vertical spread using the implied vol of the BTC future ETF).

Since October 20, 2021: (using yahoo and a btc etf) Number of bitcoin daily performance below -8%: 15 (worst -20%) Number of bitcoin daily performance above 8%: 16 (best 22%) Shorting is not that dangerous.

Easy answer: a new crypto will bring bitcoin down.

In the Blackrock prospectus/presentation one can read: "Shares of the Trust are not deposits or other obligations of or guaranteed by BlackRock, Inc., and its affiliates, and are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other governmental agency." "There can be no...

Brilliant! I am willing to buy 1/googolplex BTC at a googoplex-dollar price. It means BTC will reach one googolplex in the blockchain but I will spend only 1$. Any one interested?

Time to change from Windows to Linux

How to set up multiple monitors in Windows 11: When you right click on the desktop, select "Display settings." Select "Extend these displays" Select "Keep changes" When the changes take effect, the settings of the selected monitor appearing in blue will be displayed.

Obviously, you have a USD.JPY virtual FX position. A virtual FX position is just an OTC FX swap between your portfolio and IBKR where the implicit forward rate bears a high 8%/9% margin. Virtual FX positions occur when you select IDEALPRO when you trade FX. It is ok for day trading but not for...

Assume you will sell USD1m on December 19, 2022 against GBP and assume GBP Dec19'22 Fut bid/ask: 1.1724/1.1726 (multiplier 62500). The purchase of the above futures contract is equivalent of buying 62500 GBP and selling 62500 x 1.1726 USD on Dec 19 2022. Given that 1000000 / 62500 / 1.1726 =...

In theory options are a zero-sum game in a commission-free world where bid = ask. As a result, in reality they are not a zero-sum game. Edit: Besides in the wikipedia article all players are supposed to have the same rights. It is not the case in the options game: market makers have usually...

Title should be: Hedge fund Coltrane is up 69% after 30 months (or 23% APY).

First check your virtual FX Position (TWS->Account): should be 0 or none. Otherwise close this position using IDEALPRO as destination. With USD as base currency, you can convert your EUR balance using FXCONV once it is over a threshold. This threshold depends on your risk aversion. Might be EUR...

TLTR of the above link: What’s more confusing to some taxpayers is that a tax bill can be triggered simply by purchasing an NFT, since the purchase is made with cryptocurrency that may have appreciated since it was bought. “If you buy Ethereum for $1 and it goes to $10 and you then use it to...

Significant OI and volume in the monthly expirations compared to the weekly expirations.

In February a ban on cryptocurrencies, that relied on mining practices with a heavy carbon footprint, was removed from the initial MiCa bill...

From https://ethereum.org/en/upgrades/merge/: Eventually the current Ethereum Mainnet will "merge" with the beacon chain proof-of-stake system. This will mark the end of proof-of-work for Ethereum, and the full transition to proof-of-stake. From time.com: The Merge Phase 1 is targeted for the...

QLD (x2)

The relevant question is: why is bitcoin not worth 0? The simple answer: in 0 or negative interest rate environment Ponzi schemes occur. What will a BTC holder or new investor prefer between an asset worth $36000 (at over 100% volatility) or USD yielding over 2% soon?

It can be optimal to exercise an American put option on a non-dividend-paying stock early especially when the fed funds rate has just been raised.