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Obvious bullshit. I am not even 50 and done with box jumps because the risk/reward is stupid. 70?lol For whatever reason the brain cast uncertainty as some version of Kuhn vs. Popper that is obviously insane.

I would love to help expose this fucking fraud anyway I can. With that said, I don't see how you catch him here.

I am up 20% short NVDA this year and flat. I would never smoke crack but I can't imagine it feels better than reloading the browser and price crashing being short NVDA in 2024. That said, just terrible trading. Complete idiots have smoked me on the long side. It is a bull market.

If you have an opinion on this, then tell me what dates you have in mind? I actually don't care beyond this. I only care about being true to Alexander Kraskov at this stage of my learning. I may be completely wrong.

Haha exactly! I am on day 13 of actually entering every gram of fat, carb and protein into an app and I can't believe how totally delusional I was with what I eat. I have been on a "diet" since 1/1/24 and it was totally self-delusional until 13 days ago. What I thought was eating was stupid...

I like the charts but at this point I am done following anything besides NVDA in US equity. Who cares outside NVDA? It is a ripping bull market. The drift is up if no reason to short. Scataphagos, those NQ and ES charts are very interesting because I have completely stopped following equity...

This assumes markets are strongly efficient. People are incredibly self-deluded in all domains, not the least in economics. There are all kinds of information advantages hiding in plain site. They aren't even really hiding. People have deluded themselves into this nearly Star Wars like...

Whenever I see an infographic I just assume it is misleading because most of the time they are. I think they tried to do some kind of inflation adjustment that doesn't make sense so the data is all skewed pointlessly weird. Some cost of living index per state * median income per state. The...

Of course it can go higher, it is in an all time bull run. If you were short I don't know how you didn't cover yesterday. It was $900 and now it is $120, everything on my twitter says how it is going down so it must be a bargain. That type of thought process drives many decisions in 2024...

Palantir has an incredible marketing team. They have convinced all these retail traders that have never even wrote a "hello world" python script that they know more about machine learning than people actually involved in data science. The marketing team instantly realized they should just slap...

I have this PhD thesis bookmarked for multiscale financial time series analysis. https://digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/handle/1773/48806 It is heavy stuff though and from 2022 so quite new. The other multiscale area of research seems to be in human biological time series but I am...

I always start with synthetic data but just a dataframe with a 100 columns and 250 rows of uniform random -1 to 1. That is just to not have to be bothered with handling real data. TimeGAN looks interesting. There are also these transformer time series models that I haven't looked much into...

This is all the problem I am have been trying to figure out for the past month. There is just so many options. I feel like I have put off not having a GPU for years and sticking with cpu models like d08. My current desktop though is really long in the tooth and ready for an upgrade but I...

Ironically, this is actually why I am considering buying a windows machine for the first time in a very long time. NVDA gpus take linux back to the old days that you have to deal with all these possible issues. If you build a machine , you pretty much are stuck with OpenCL and not CUDA unless...

I did some analysis and there was this interesting spike in mutual information between TLT and IWM last month that has gone back to zero It is certainly there with various window sizes too but hard to really know what to make of middle period but it is cool to see a spike in October too. I...

I am up 7% today short NVDA at the open. Pure luck as I was going to short yesterday but was annoyed when the market was closed. I would have been stopped out at the open but instead up nice. I had considered a long at $910 or so to hold over last earnings but wimped out. Not betting on the...

I forgot I did this network correlation analysis in April of the futures market and you can see how the Russell is connected to the treasury futures. I will have to see if I can recreate it and if the edge weight has changed on new data that would back up what we think we are seeing.

The least shocking news headline ever will be when I read "Roaring Kitty charged with securities fraud" This is just the most standard fraudster behavior. Once the fraudster gets away with it once, the temptation to keep going is just too much.

It is ironic though that if you look at Niederhoffer's twitter he is an alcoholic that does nothing but tweet total nonsense these days. Some days he is so drunk he can't even spell right. That doesn't mean Education of Speculator isn't still a great book.

I think I see what Sergio is seeing and agree. The correlation between the Russel 2000 and Treasuries was from rate cuts and the uncertainty with rate cuts. I think this is because of small cap interest rate sensitivity and long bond sensitivity to interest rate uncertainty. It is not much of...