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  1. J

    The efficiency of small-mid cap options market

    @destriero can I find you on other forums as well? But if your trading Netflix vol you would also need a lot of edge. I'm sure there would be a few money managers/ retail who would love to sell me some cheap calls on NBBO. Or cheap insurance. In AAPL that would be arbed away so fast.
  2. J

    The efficiency of small-mid cap options market

    It seems everyone here doesn't trade them and the open interest proves that no one trades them. If no one is trading them then how the hell can they be efficient (reflect all participants ideas). I understand the bid ask is insane. Thanks for sharing your idea ERROR Correction
  3. J

    The efficiency of small-mid cap options market

    Looking at a stock that let's say trades 500k-1MM of stock a day. The option market will be pretty illiquid. This illiquidity should keep many big players out. So my question is who are making these markets and would they be less efficient?
  4. J

    How to realize buying cheap vol

    Could you break this down a bit? What's an example of arbitaging skew? And when you say vol discount is debatable without hedging...are you saying if you don't hedge you dont have a way to see if you realized it or not?
  5. J

    How to realize buying cheap vol

    When looking at the greeks I am long gamma long vega short theta. Considering my theory is vol will increase, I want to be long vega and gamma. So should i only be concerned with managing my deltas?
  6. J

    How to realize buying cheap vol

    Yes it was a paper trade, I am practicing my delta hedging. The bid and ask was a lot wider in the morning and ToS filled me at 1.40. Showing a nice profit now LOL. But in general If I think the fair value of the contract is $4. should i delta hedge until i hit that $4 mark and then close the...
  7. J

    How to realize buying cheap vol

    Today I put on a trade on PCH Bought the 50,55 Aug strangle for 1.40. Reasoning for trade: 1) 3 month Implied vol is currently 14% cheaper than 3 month realized vol. 2) 3 month Implied vol is also in the 3rd percentile. 3) Stock is heavily correlated with lumber. Lumber Term structure is...
  8. J

    Back spreads the Greeks and Nicholas Taleb

    Yea I agree, people think the higher order greeks are useless. Gamma is a higher order greek and it is very very powerful. With R or matlab you can code a method to see the greeks move real time. Excel does this as well. Im with IB and they provide real time data to excel. I am sure ToS could...
  9. J

    event driven strategies with options

    I have used the CFDs before they are really great but you have still have the downside risk. Mav if you look at FTR (frontier communications), it is evident that the stock will either be a lot higher or bankrupt in 2 years from now. The 12 strike Jan 2020 calls are trading for $1.10. Or would a...
  10. J

    event driven strategies with options

    That's not what i meant, what i mean is can i find other alternatives such as, warrants, cfds, or whatever else there is. Or sell OTM call on a similar company to finance the call on the prospect.
  11. J

    event driven strategies with options

    Cornwall Capital is known for buying options on undervalued companies that have some sort of bi-modal distribution. Does anyone know of another hedge fund that does similar? Also Cornwall was able to find cheaper methods to put on a trade using OTC derivatives. If I think company x will go up...
  12. J

    Edge in understanding Distributions?

    So for example last summer when home capital (hcg.to) got screwed for over leveraging, the stock went from $30 to $4 a share. If we would look 2 years into the future, the stock would either be 0 or it would recover. Even tho implied vol was high, the 2 year DOTM options don't have that much...
  13. J

    Back spreads the Greeks and Nicholas Taleb

    Okay so the more I read about Chris Cole the more interest I am getting in higher order derivatives. He states to be successful you have to except small loses in first order derivatives to gain a great deal of exposure in second/third order derivatives. I was using R to look at the dvega/dvol...
  14. J

    Back spreads the Greeks and Nicholas Taleb

    Chris Cole mentions "never hedge a non linear product with a linear product." Whats the intuition behind this? If i am short a strangle and my delta risk increases, is there a problem with using the underlying to hedge? I understand i will still have gamma and vega risk but isnt using the...
  15. J

    Back spreads the Greeks and Nicholas Taleb

    Currently I am long the e-minis, with a large calendar spread i put on at the 2400 strike a few weeks ago that is serving me well so far. However this strategy will not serve me well in EXTREME melt downs, I know Taleb and Spitnagel like to buy the tail risk and was even mentioned that they buy...
  16. J

    Edge in understanding Distributions?

    When assets drop significantly from an event, for example when Equifax had the cyber breach, Skew increases drastically. This is also seen in leap options as well. At this point should'nt the distribution be bi-modal instead of a skew normal distribution? Is there an edge here to buy long dated...
  17. J

    Jeff Gundlach and Bill Gross spooking bond market?

    Jeff Gundlach and Bill Gross believe we could be entering a bond bear market if the 3% ten year is taken out. The bond market is reflecting this and Hedge funds have not been this short the 5 year treasuries since the taper tantrum. Everyone on seeking alpha also seems to be net short bonds. It...
  18. J

    Getting back to a normal sleep cycle?

    I have had the same problem as I was spending most of my nights coding R until 4 am. What worked for me was take a small dose of melatonin for the first few nights to get tired. After a week you should be on a routine. Oh and make sure to read 20 minutes before bed with NO electronics!!!
  19. J

    The ACD Method

    Mav, I am finding selling Iron Fly's on SPX and other liquid indexes/Equities when: OR is => ATR(5) divided by 2.5 or yesterdays range was greater than ATR(5) and then buy it back EOD or with a 15% profit of total premium collected. My number line must also be between -/+ 5. To be profitable...
  20. J

    How to play the election

    would it be more profitable to buy a straddle/strangle on the spy expiring nov9 or a latter expiration? is there a more profitable way to play this election? I think if crooked Hilary wins the market will still fall because of the descending triangle we are in as well as past history shows once...
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