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  1. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    Hi everybody, just looked at ET the first time since months, don`t want to stay lengthy, just a few lines... @Skippy (Who`s buying here...), the key are the marketinternals, the AdvancingVolume/DecliningVolume NYSE Ratio is ~ at 4.5, a very high number, everthing over ~ 3-3.5 i found to be a...
  2. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    I did tested the DDF as filter for an openrangebreakoutsystem ~ 1 year ago, and it enhanced the results remarkable, but of course there were times it did not work too good but that`s with all things/strategies in trading.....i remember not using 60 min, but more ~75 -90 min. In my discrete...
  3. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    I`m just curious...we see a breakout of weeklong congestion from a very coiled market, why do you expect this a false breakout? And extremly bullish marketinternals.... I `m long since wednesday in YM and monday in SPY calls cause this was a very clear bullish pattern, and I don`t expect this to...
  4. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    Upvolume at NYSE ~ 4 times as large as Downvolume, take care with the shortside...
  5. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    DJ Utility average broke out to upside with large volume, it`s up to your interpretation what that means....
  6. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    from yesterday @ 15.13.... Oil and energysector leading the pack... Second up was DJ utility index... Investopia writes: "The utility average tends to decline when investors expect rising interest rates. Utilities tend to borrow a lot of money and, consequently, are more sensitive to changes...
  7. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    don`t try to trade with this...even if you are right with your sight it`s useless...I remember a ~ 70 year old statement from an economist: ~~"markets can be longer irrational than you can be solvent". yesterday the equities were lead by oilsector + ~2.5%, so equities can climb just cause oil...
  8. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    Everything on line with the bigger picture, so far still everything green, trendstrength even lower, a negative monday is a good sign for further strength the rest of week in a bullmarket, there is more danger with a positive monday. Just a random marketnoise so far. Change sight not before...
  9. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    Good luck in your trading, mondays are not too often a large trendday, so may be today is nothing exciting. I`m out, we have holiday here, barbeque and some exercises in the rocks (climbingstuff) with the guys from caveseekers.com. I have a resting order with calls...
  10. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    Pure from Volatility it can fall like a stone too, but from the pattern i see, i would say, there was already a headfake for the shorts and we can see the 4 th(?) attempt to break to the upside. On Dacharts I found the ro4 pattern, means that the 4th attempt is mostly succesfull in breaking out...
  11. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    uuups, too fast, missed the chart...
  12. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    To look into this LBR rule with the low ADX on 120 min, i did a 120 chart with ADX and marked the areas with low ADX, cause nothing is perfect, this is sometimes more or less remarkable, but quite often after such a condition follows a larger move as you can see on the chart
  13. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    @ B1S2, a very low Trendstrength leads normally to the next larger move/breakout soon, but this defines only volatility not direction, I look on daily ranges too, friday was a relativ small range of 0.8 the average range/last 5 days, so a trendday is quite possible the next tradingday, or vice...
  14. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    I have an order in for some 1350 SPY calls on monday, this Beauty is definitely in breakoutmodus and i doubt the direction is down, sideways for ~ 6 weeks, and this pattern is quite bullish in my eyes...Cause even more stops ahead from shortplayers i expect a 30 point upmove next week. Hope not...
  15. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    Van Halen, so I would say you are more in the scalpingcorner and less in the trendtradingcorner ~ Scaling out makes only sense by riding out trendtrades looking for max. profits X multiples of stopsize and a serious need for smoothing the equitycurve of trendsystems. Only. If you don`t...
  16. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    Van Halen, Yes, that`s what I said too, you have to be sure that your system/entry gives you a high% of going some amount in profit at once, if not having such a high%, the effect is negative cause stopped out too often with full size, depends on your entryskills....or system, exits depending...
  17. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    MA`s in shortterm trading have the same problems like any other indicators here, they don`t adapt to shorter or longer cyclelength, they are too fast in slow market and too slow in fast market, this is of course the same on daily or weekly but not so pronounced. there are some variations out...
  18. M

    Using the $TICK for confirmation

    Just fading every TICK extreme CAN be a good idea in a relative flat market with low volume and premium in the neutral, and more in the calm times of day, I guess...... So what about just fading TICK extremes in the direction of premium(if relevant), daily trend and direction of longer MA`s of...
  19. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    Hey Spike, that`s not too different from my sight, my best manual trades coming from a good analyzis of marketcycles/waves, the sometimes used indicators are mostly only the pure triggersignal for setups defined by cycles/counts..
  20. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    ... meeting the great problem when/where to exit, all, or partial, or MOC ? There are some ressources claiming there is no way with one set of contracts, means all in/all out, below an excerpt from daytradingbulletin claiming a minimum 2, better 3-5 set of contracts is the way to go.... To...
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