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All of the examples that Cutten uses are in fact Gray Swans...this what Taleb says (and I quote): "some events can be rare and consequential, but somewhat predictable, particularly to those who are prepared for them and have the tools to understand them...", so while the events Cutten describes...

if you're looking in Canada there are only a two that I know of...in Toronto; DVTrading (dvtrading.ca) and another one in Montreal I think is CFT or something...apparently dvtrading might be expanding into chicago...

I don't think it is a technical level at all...it is more a psychological inflection point...4% is the real Level...but if it goes through this there are likely stops and small fed up shorts that will fire the market upwards further...if 3.97 or 96 breaks...then you have more than just stops...

speaking to some screen locals recently I get the same impression of the last few days...GE has been so aggressive one minute, so completely dead the next...you get into a trade based on one thing, and all of a sudden nothing happens and there is absolutely no movement...unreal...ah well, roll...

that little buy up after the minutes was aggressive...and short covering always tends to cause that kind of panic buying...people were selling all day after cpi ahead of the minutes and when you're already so short you don't want to sell anymore, the offers tend disappear frighteningly quick...

I hear you on the volume bix, however, it does seem like there is a lot more real volume trading through these days... I guess I should have specified the run up in GE was a bit ridiculous...CPI and PPI are two different numbers, yes they are related but way too many guys had bets that the...

anyone happen to see the volume on the DEC05 contract today...that's got to be close to a record...almost 500,000 if I'm not mistaken...big sellers ahead of the minutes getting good position after ridiculous run-up after cpi...then quick profit taking after release...finally some more volatility...

and you now have my response...have a look eh? as for the rest, bloggs is right in saying that there is more than enough info not just from me by the way about trading ED on this thread...anyone interested in knowing more about it just has to spend some time reading it...

sorry guns but I really don't agree with you about 'giving away money' by sharing information about trading styles...I don't have a system per se, if I did then maybe I'd be worried about losing an edge as so many people speak of...my style of trading ED is basically scalping and no matter what...

cheers bloggs...I understand your point...I guess our timeframes differ so our considerations of margin and risk differ...

Goldie=Goldman...just my own ad-libbing...just meaning that he was big seller of Sep05 and may have been buying Dec05 as a flattener unwind... as for outright trading, while I agree somewhat with ds and his outburst, I think I could be a little more diplomatic about it...so what exactly do...

so you're talking about the actual number of trades executed on a daily basis in each contract?...I'm not familiar with tws...either way, the volume over all ED months is over 1million on most days recently...as far as I know ED is the most actively traded future on the CME so I think it might...

are you talking about Mar05/Mar06 spread? How does that work now that Mar05 is basically 20,000 bid/offered all day and doesn't really move? Why not just trade Mar06 outright and hedge with Mar05 if it all starts to go wrong? trying to get more info about how these spreads behave...remember...

I think it would depend on why stocks weaken...ie: quicker rate hikes vs. poor earnings results... by the way, observed some serious clips in the Sep05...5000 sold at 46.5 (Goldman) and 5000 sold at 48 (Goldman again) while the Dec05 looked heavy initially, big buyers came in eventually...

what exactly puzzles you about the number of trades?

while I don't use IB, I can answer some of your other questions no I don't use time and sales, though some guys I trade with do have it up...with ED you generally have a good idea about what size is going through at what price if you're paying any attention... the platform I use gives me...

interesting...no doubt this still occurs and in fact you can kind of see it happen sometimes on the screen aswell... as an aside...it seems Barclays was selling big Mar06 volume throughout the day and then was on the bid in Dec05 at the end of the day after our little Fed Minutes meltdown...

take a look at the post I made on page 32 of this thread...the comments come from sle who works at a big shop that trades ED...this probably explains end of day fluctuations...and as I said above, probably explains the end of day breakouts as some shops scramble to match positions before the...

what Bloggs says does tend to be true...in the outright ED months, the end of the day tends to provide an opportunity to look for stops...this does sometimes throw the spreads out of whack for a while on relatively small volume...if you look at market profile(or other charting software so take...

the fed's statement was only one word different than the last..."gradually"...applied to the improvement of the labour market...I guess we wait for the Jan.7th non-farm before we see any real movement...after the annoucement the flattener trade continued and there doesn't seem to be anything...