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A few things things: 1) Some of you guys crack me up! Lol :) 2) Thank you psytrade for mentioning those physician traders. I may just look them up. 3) drcha - what do you now after medicine? 4) clacy - I know what you're talking about. However obamacare will not be repealed. There...

Here you go: http://cl.ly/0f611085f9567416759c By the way: 1) I typically trade end of day - so yes I can trade futures while working full time. I never said I was a daytrader. 2) I am not afraid of HFT/algos/etc. I am doing fine as a simple, retail futures trader. I am...

Hi dtrader98, Thank you for the well wishes. It is a cushy job and moreover it is fun - especially when I get to do big heart cases (1-2x / wk). However, I need to be nimble just in case (like my trading), and in all honesty the reason why I will probably leave is: 1) Decreasing...

Great thanks a bunch. No, there aren't fat tails. I started trading in 1999, learned how to do it consistently in 2003-2004, then stopped trading as I entered internship and residency. Now that I've been out for 2 years, I decided to pick it up again - and at a perfect time considering...

Yes unfortunately I'm leaving medicine because of ObamaCare. 3 years is what our lawyers are telling us before things start to go into effect. I'm not the only one - many other of my colleagues and surgeons are planning their exit as well as it is no longer worth it for us docs. I don't...

I am a 34 y/o anesthesiologist (no school loans) getting ready for the move out of medicine in 3 years due to ObamaCare. I know this thread title is probably just asking for people to flame me b/c I know there are traders out there who are better and more advanced BUT I would appreciate...

I sincerely thank you for your time and generosity. I was lookong for something like this. Yes I am very willing to learn. So much too learn, not enough time! Now that my anesthesia oral board exam is out of the way (at least for the next 10 yrs), I now have to take the Transesophageal...

There are a few points that I think are important enough for me to butt in: 1. I was looking for a method to determine if my trading results were due to chance alone and not skill (i.e. Was I just lucky I did 7.5% during 3 difficult summer months?). Therefore any formula that incorporates...

I sincerely thank you! You bring great happiness to my evening with new information to learn. I will begin to look up all that you tell me (b/c I don't know how to calculate std dev of my trades - I guess I will try excel). I will also look up van Tharp and system quality number and make a...

No I don't take it personally. But I do appreciate honesty. Strings of bad losses and/or a patient death is part of what we do. There is no way around it in our chosen professsion(s). Fortunately I haven't experienced these yet (knock on wood), but it's not to say that I won't. That's why...

Illiquid, you bring up some solid points. But there a couple of reasons why I tend to disagree with your opinion that i dont know anything and that my chances of continuing to obtain my results are slim to none: First is that I admit, despite having a long experience trading, I freely admit...

Very insightful and helpful post masterjaz. Yeah I learned about leptokurtosis after reading up on the link that I posted about Barclays CTA's trading returns above. Although the above results seem to be exclusively ag futures, I only trade these on a rare occasion, so there probably are some...

OKAY! I found the answer myself. Some of you suggested monte carlo, others suggested that there is NO normal distribution, and others said trading results are normally distributed but is proprietary info from the brokerages. Well I will share with all of you generous people the results of...

Thanks so much for clarifying this. Your explanation is what I thought Kelly % meant but I wasn't sure. I like that you metioned something I think is important: to use money you know you could live without. So if your trading capital is a small percentage of the total money you can live without...

Yes I do use options not stops. Problem arises when for example Lumber doesn't have an equivalent ETF and corresponding options. I know there are options on futures but they are too expensive with huge spreads and low volume. So anyway the Kelly % should be the amount I've bet - but not the...

Being new to understanding Kelly % (but not new to trading), I too ask this same question. Although I could risk $38k, in reality I'd only risk about 1% of capital per trade. I would never let it a loss go to $38k unless it gapped way, way down. which would be a crash in my opinion.

A rising tide lifts all ships...if the broader markets are all going up in unison, it is what I would consider easy. Remember 1999? When the VIX is high however, as this past summer was, does it become more important (i.e. more difficult) to get entry and exit points more timely. High...

HA! I KNEW there were some smart folk on this message board that know their statistics pretty darn good. And alright.... as other people have shown me in mumbo jumbo statistics terms, perhaps I was searching for the wrong thing, a p-value, which doesn't really help my trading anyway. I...

I think what I'm asking if this makes sense to anybody is: Where on the binomial distribution curve does a 7.5% return in 3 month over 300+ trades lie? I.e. Is this less than 1, greater than 1 or greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean? How come I don't know statistics well...

Its not 25 trades. It's a lot more. $1100 worth of $3 commission per contract at TOS. TOS just gives me the vehicles I've traded and their TOTAL profit or loss (although each vehicle may have been traded hundreds of times). I don't know how to get/calculate the individual trades so I just...