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I pick tops and bottoms all the time and make great money doing it. I never bet against the trend. I'm betting that the trend has ended. MAJOR difference there. just don't be stupid about it. notice what happens when markets are moving into their last leg down/up. you can trade any...

The market trends 100% of the time so the question really is leading in the wrong direction. if you can identify traffic patterns on a highway such that your ability to monitor, analyze, decide, and act allow you to merge successfully and safely with the traffic... why then would you think...

neat jack, thanks for responding. I appreciate the time you took to post that. :-)

Hi jack, I know that you know. You say you began trading in 1957, how long did it take you to come up with your observations? I wonder at how you managed to put together your method so succinctly. M.A.D.A know what to monitor know how to analyze it know what decision to...

pretty good, I've started live trading again about a month ago after proving to myself on paper that I knew what I was seeing/doing. been having slow and steady gains since then. nothing spectacular yet but I know that I know what I know. And I know how to do it. I'm not trading...

1. everybody is always in the learning phase. doesn't matter your pnl 2. You would not be happy to post your details because you would value all the effort and work too much to piss your time away on a message board posting your blotter. You might do as spyder and jack have done and post the...

thought i would respond cause i have nothing better to do right now. Your original question is not the one you ought to be asking at this point. identify your trading fractal (time frame). identify your desirable trading frequency during the ebb and flow of the market during the day...

thought I would post my effort for this AM as I am satisfied that I was operating at a level of sufficiency...at least up until the end where doubt entered my mind.

Thanks avi, this is a brilliant observation. I think you're right.

I was wondering if anyone had a method for getting their EQ/IQ in order before the trading day starts. I got a late start today and I was all over the place... mentally felt like crap after I threw up my hands in the morning. Fortunately I caught the 14:30 FTT bar long... so that sort of...

your SH/SL terminology = FTT which = Point1... the answer to your question is always....but that doesn't mean you stop monitoring for FBO/FTT in the future.... but in the NOW, all of the aformentioned terms are equivalent.

how would having a rigorous definition of what an FTT is help you? You know where the FTT is located right? It's not where the channel doesn't overlap. ;) drill down from what you know, and where you know. don't let yourself get frustrated and more importantly OFF TRACK about a...

start reading the journal from the beginning (actually, procrast made it easy for you and compiled 5 initial volumes for you to print out and read.). Don't look for spoon fed answers because that ain't gonna happen. In fact, it can't happen here's a drill. annotate 100 5 min es charts in...

why would you want to handicap yourself?

you can wash out of a rocket on the FTT that follows it. otherwise you can hold through the retraces.

you are looking at the wrong bar. I'm discussing 2 bars later than the highlighted bar, i'm assuming your talking to me lol.

For me, (aside from considering the ym during the bounce phase)...I would be taking note of the fact that the closing of the price bar should be a heck of a lot higher on that much volume. in other words... "why would this price bar be closing so "low" on extreme volume at the LTL?" big...

I would also be willing to bet (because I wasn't monitoring at the time) that the big black bar had an intra-bar gaussian shift that is not observable in the image. bottom line is that the price bar closed at less than half it's width and the volume was quite high.... that's a huge warning...

your indicator that you seek is called a channel and it is created through price/volume analysis. I don't know of any software currently that automates the drawing in of these channels, fortunately it is not necessary.

as was previously stated your unstated assumption is that the market has an equal probability of going up or going down at some random point in time... this is not the case. the market always has a place where it CAN operate and a place where it Can NOT operate given volume considerations...