Search results

Thanks @poopy I had forgotten that NVDA earnings are tonight, which obviously removes the rationale for that trade.

Not skew-lock but seems like a good week to use a simple double-diagonal structure.

This. I'm astonished that some experienced traders wonder why they lose when they cannot answer the questions: why did you take the trade? without using the words "hope" "guess" "perhaps" "maybe" etc what is the value of your edge? did you price the trade and enter opening order(s) at the...

Cinnamon Club in Westminster does Indian tasting menu with wine flights etc and is excellent, but lots of the Bengali restaurants east of the City provide great food in less opulent dining rooms.

@shMark are you saying you make more money trading strategies that you haven't back tested, than you make trading strategies that you have?

Thank you. Neither. I have accidentally misled because my initial hijacking of this was to hypothesize about using lottery-type flies to hedge short vol positions. Conditions (low-vol) haven't been right for me to open short vol positions, but I opened a few long flies speculatively. The...

If you think that you can profit simply from time passing, do you think that the person buying the option from you doesn't understand the concept of the passage of time?

As an update, markets have obviously been very kind to anyone doing OtM call flies recently. 10 round-trip trades here. 1 loss & 9 profit closed in profit. Average P&L 172%. Average duration 19 days.

You didn't know that I had opened a couple of small positions to test this. Closing orders filled for the first few this week. 19 days 20 days 20 days Top prediction @destriero !! :thumbsup: BtW, been busy with other stuff so I haven't got round to the modelling that we discussed, but I will.

Gotchya; much appreciated. I'll have a go at modelling that over the next week or so as it makes sense as an approach. FWiW, my (very early stage) hypothesis - caveat untested - is: I have a slight positive EV taking credit for 28DtE IronFlies when IV is relatively high but drawdowns are...

Thanks @destriero I'm not sure what this means? I've been looking at c28DtE timframe initially.

I had a think about this during the Christmas break. Wondering about combining long OtM directional flies (close enough to have +ve expected value, so not really lottery-level cheap) to hedge against short AtM Iron flies for vol. I did a bit of backtesting and it looks like it might have legs...

Hi, Thank you. If your spreadsheet provides you with a consistently profitable way to enter and exit a trade, don't share it with a stranger, trade with it!

The clue is in the title question. For the 'lottery win' you need to consistently get direction right, magnitude of that move right, AND precise timing of that move right. Too far or late and you won't achieve it. You need to backtest your entry and exit conditions to calculate whether you...

I always enter orders via Desktop/laptop, but partially because everything comes from Excel and everything works better on bigger screens than on a phone. I have IB in Read-Only mode on the phone and ipad so that I can see what's happening when away from my desk.

A good trader consistently makes a net risk-adjusted profit (after all costs including their time) across changing markets.

FWiW, I use 0DtE to 3DtE as part of a portfolio and it works well. I'll be long some speculative flies and Calandars when conditions meet my requirements, but also enjoy the flexibility/agility of hedging existing longer-term positions.

hmmm, so wxy's conclusion is that the regulated market is rigged against him, so open an unprotected account, with an unregulated bucketshop, based in one of the murkier parts of the world, and trade binaries! WCGW?

Is it possible to make 20% in a month? Yes of course. Can you make 1% twenty times in a month? Is it possible to make 20% every month? Possible but improbable without experience, adaptable edge(s) that can be applied to changing conditions, sound money management, effective risk management...

Swing trader perspective here. Turning point for the indices for me, too. SPX long since 17 May (4159). Short signal on Friday 04 August (4478) NDX long since 28 April (13246). Short signal Friday 04 August (15275) RTY (the future as I don't track RUT spot) long since 11 July (1928). Short...