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There’s a merger arb between SIRI and LSXMK right now. LSXMK share converts to 8.4 SIRI shares, trading at $22.70 so ~$2.70 post conversion and SIRI spot is $3.50. Deal has been disclosed since Dec ‘23, targeted to close “early Q3 2024”, no opposition that I am aware of. SIRI is HTB of...

john, I think we hashed out just about everything already. But I like your spirit and didn't want to leave you hanging when you're direct quoting me. I'm going to take a break after this though. Wasn't trying to take the discussion into conceptual realm. Just ability to produce goods or...

I tried to be careful in the words I used. By real value I mean productive activities or efficient services being offered to the market/economy. And eventually some of the profit or forward profit from those activities being passed on to the shareholders. So far they have had great success in...

You're right, short call spread pnl will disappoint a little if/when a snap repricing occurs, unless there's enough time until that occurs to rack up some decent premium. I can't tell whether vol is too high or not, and whether a shock repricing of the premium to median levels will happen...

That was the case for me as well, may be half the reason the trade exists to this degree. You may find it slightly less capital intensive to short MSTR otm call verticals and hedge with a long BTC spot position. Vol is so high that you might be able to get strikes outside of wherever the...

High borrow like this is usually always heavily concentrated in the front of the term structure. Brokers sometimes gouge on borrow but in more liquid names I think they are usually fairly accurate and uniformly concentrated around the borrow implied by the shortest option expirations in the...

The warrants (DJTWW) are trading at ~27.00 and can be exercised 30 days from the merger closing date to buy a DJT share for $11.50 in cash--so total cost basis $38.50. Even trading those against the May short synthetic which gives a forward price of $54 gives a pretty rich edge. I don't...

Yeah, I bought several batches of long puts, and then started buying shares to flatten my risk after I was sitting on decent gains. MSTR has shown surprising strength, the NAV premium is more persistent than I initially expected and it's correlation to BTC lends it a lot of strength. I don't...

This was tough to trade with volatility so jacked. Scratched 3 times trying to catch the turn but finally got up to size yesterday: Long 500 shares @ $1500 and just spread off the rest of my risk at ~$1300. This was a fun one guys!

This is an interesting peripheral topic in and of itself, and it does kind of feed into certain worldviews, BTC maximalism being one of them. A lot of the time we develop technology and only after the fact start to understand its detrimental effects. I think there’s a serious downside to...

@Frederick Foresight Okay, so this is a pretty legend quote. Kind of invalidates some of what I wanted to discuss with you lol. I think we’re at an interesting time, where the worldview of BTC revolutionaries and traditional financiers kind of overlaps. They can extend the BTC % rally of...

What do you mean by “smarter”? Running full kelly on half account, is essentially like having a global portfolio of 50% cash and 50% risk on. As you increase the rebalancing frequency, the strategy will mirror half Kelly more and more. From a standpoint of optimizing mean terminal wealth...

John, they have the news that FFR is 5%. Now I didn't go into the prospectus, but I'm near certain if you priced out the convertible strike, they just purchased extrinsic value that is greater than the 4.375% * their duration, that can be close to arbed off in the open market. Dumb money is...

This is almost painful for me to read. One of the greatest benefits of trading your own money is the ability to freely lose it! Unless you’re trading severely capital intensive arbs and leverage constraints have blocked your ability to have a proper drawdown, you have got to be leaving a very...

This won't 100x on meme hype, but here's an alt coin with potential for sustained growth. If it becomes an established protocol in the DEX space I think there's potential for 10x - 20x from here. It's my biggest alt coin position right now: SOLID (solidly.com) I started trying to type out...

I don't think it's likely BTC will go under $10,000 any time soon. I think it's a useful commodity, probably still short of it's peak adoption. And I agree as well that it's not good to try to store value in cash, aside from some times where the short term interest rate is above forward...

Harvesting risk premium. Buying assets with relative value in somewhat illiquid markets. Using leverage. Structuring decisions in a way that increases optionality, especially when it's cheap or free. I don't think I'd consider myself an expert trader or businessman, I run high variance and I...

Yeah Noah, you’ve admitted to having a low amount of wealth. Low levels of wealth (7 figures) are fairly easy to create with the right kind of thinking and a good work ethic. Listen to the wealthier and more intelligent members of this forum when they are trying to advise you. BTC isn’t going...

I think modeling BTC as a store of value commodity makes the most sense. There are sub-functions active like retail hype, collectibles, etc, but I think the non-decaying commodity function will be the long-term driver of value, since inflation constantly erodes societal currencies. Gold and...

John, you’re a huge crypto bull, so a lot of your views are shifted pretty far away from the aggregate distribution of outcomes that the market is pricing for crypto. And free markets are great because you can trade those views and earn a lot of money if you end up having a more accurate view...