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This is a binary event call....but keep in mind, with that super-high IV, much has already been priced into a "leave" event. That being said, selling the straddle makes the most sense here. Even with a "leave" vote, there is still a chance this could win or at least break-even. BTW: nice chart...

Review break-out strategies and go-with vs. fade-it options.

Well, the 21.50 level seems to be support for now.... if this company could just announce something positive by July.... then this is the bottom. That's the bet. Go with the 25 Oct strike calls.

No, they do not get big $$ trading, but they do get big $$ by coming up with profitable trading strategies. Ask Stevie Cohen of Point72 Asset Management....he has a slew of high-tech quants on his staff.

Have you tried a different measure...i.e. Tick bars instead of Time bars ?

OK, OK...I definitely was wrong on this one.....now approaching 20. It's still seeking support.

I agree with JCL....Next Bar objectives are stupid....the objective must be based on these factors: 1) Trades Per Day (frequency) 2) Commisions and Fees Per Trade measured in TICKS 3) Future price vs. Current Price in TICKS So constrain #1, and optimize on #3 minus #2. If you don't constrain on...

VRX had new all time lows today....on a swoon in the whole biotech sector. The daily volume was low however.....

Remember...with long options, you have some time for the trade to work out.... and your losses are capped.

New all-time highs likely. Still, a good shorting opportunity IMHO....that move would be all psychological.... nothing has changed FUNDAMENTALLY: 1) negative overseas interest rates 2) copper price below cost of production 3) shaky US labor market 4) shaky US retail figures 5) crude oil prices...

New lows in Valient today....despite a decent XBI showing. This is getting interesting....market is indicating a complete blow-up for this stock. Heck, David Ackman must be down a ton by now. I think this is a "wash-out" move followed by a huge rebound. Perfect call play...perhaps the July 25...

Good discussion...and I think the above just confirms that the data being given to the machine learning algorithms is not prepped properly. Just feeding it tick data is stupid IMHO.

That's NOW !! So time to buy ? If Brexit is not passed, this market will soar.....at least temporarily. There are so many headwinds....consumer confidence, retail sales, Chinese economy, price of copper, US job market, negative interest rates... They just keep coming. I love the one comment on...

The best algo traders use tick charts.....which help eliminate tiny, choppy candles that result with time bars when the trade activity drops...say from 11 am to 2 pm.

Good stuff and wide stops are the key to your success. However, how did you arrive at the 60% ? Why not 40%, 50%, etc. ?

That doesn't make sense...$490 is your GROSS profit. $305 is your net profit after commissions and exchange fees (excluding data feed cost) Are you aware that based on the above figures, your commissions and fees were almost 40% of your Gross PnL ? Time to consider renting a seat on the CME.....

You forgot S.A.R Stop And Reverse In that case, you are always in the market.

To me one of the most important considerations when playing the break-out game: 1) go with it 2) fade it The best traders have a keen sense on which one is best for current conditions.

I've used SVM for logistic regression....with good results....a healthcare application. Now setting up the data structures to do the analysis for market data....that is quite tricky. You've got to create covariates based on the conditions and the signals you think is appropriate. Then you must...

I agree J_Smith...and when I backtested pivot points, I saw no value for them as entry signals. Plus, he has two different signals running concurrently....the pivot point breakout and then the retracement signal. Without a detailed journal, how does he know which one is working and which is not ?