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It's a tough thing to do, especially for EM currencies and especially for free on the web. You can get free sources for some DM economies on various websites, but unless data is published by the domestic central bank, you're out of luck.

Look at the various "goodness of fit" tests, such as the chi square one mentioned above. There are others.

Night time in what time zone? As long as Japan is open, you'll be fine (cash trades pretty actively in Japanese hours)...

Good stuff...

A trade's positive expected value isn't necessary and sufficient for the trade to be a good one.

A few people got killed by these types of tasty trades... Peloton, if memory serves, did smth similar. It is amazing how Mack managed to remain a "knight in shining armor" figure throughout it all.

This discussion is as old as time... One can blow up being long optionality, as well as being short. However, the thing that blows you up is leverage, always and everywhere. And it's a lot easier to be misled and get oneself properly leveraged by selling options. Hence, Maverick's story is...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-22/yellen-s-ties-from-london-to-shanghai-bypass-white-house.html It sure looks to me that Summers is a LOT more of a political insider than Yellen. Certainly, he's a LOT closer to Obama.

No, the Chinese rate that you're reading about isn't similar to the FedFunds effective. The FedFunds effective rate can move away from the FedFunds target rate set by the Fed somewhat, but for the two rates to diverge significantly is a very unusual occurrence. In summary, the probability...

:)

Indeed... I just couldn't understand the question (if there was one), sorry. I guess the question was "why does the curve steepen so much", to which you have provided an answer already.

For Sep13, 1.2% implies roughly 108-16 px, arnd 108-15 for Dec13. That's v approximate.

Huh?

"Treasury Bond Basis" by Burghardt et al "Eurodollar Futures and Options Handbook" by Burghardt Start there and proceed at your own risk...

Yes, SNB is a little special in that it does mark-to-market, in a fashion. As to the SNB shares trading on the exchange, I am curious, have you ever traded them? Do you know how that works? Everything you have said above doesn't refute my original point, which I think has been stated by...

Raghuram Rajan is one of the best out there...

First of all, those early versions of a US central bank didn't fail because of losses, so not really sure why they're relevant. Secondly, there's no argument that any central bank exists because of a particular political arrangement. If that arrangement goes away, the cb does as well, which is...

Agreed... My point was that, according to most commentators, Obama, basically, fired Bernanke (see here, for instance: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3044087/posts). In light of that, it's hard to see how Bernanke as Obama's pawn is a more accurate description than Bush's pawn.

I have been to both places and much prefer the Singaporean lifestyle, personally. Dubai felt a little sterile to me. The smog in Singapore was pretty bad, but it went away quite quickly, to be fair. Horses for courses, innit?

And which ones might those be?