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  1. mervyn

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    “The S&P is already up over 9% from its mid-March lows. History suggests that the short-term rally is over. If the S&P is going to march higher again, it will need to sell off first before doing so.” We got 5-7 naked POCs down below, not exactly on a solid footing for a continuous rally. SPY...
  2. mervyn

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Maybe it is already priced in, remember they missed 40% of Mac shipments?
  3. mervyn

    Anatomy of a Bankruptcy

    these is a wayfair for you.
  4. mervyn

    Schwab is taking me for a ride!

    Don't get your point. You are pooling with other noncompetitive bids customers, it is guaranteed filled. In a single auction, a bidder is capped at 10 million in noncompetitive bids. Therefore even Schwab or Fidelity retail customers pool can't exceed 10 million.
  5. mervyn

    Schwab is taking me for a ride!

    New issued treasury bills minumium investment is $1k a bond, in every brokerage I came across. For $9k you can buy 9 bonds. Sweep cash is always earning the least because it is more like a liquidty support than a product.
  6. mervyn

    My experience: GOOG from powerhouse to worthless in 2 weeks.

    That's Google's business model, sell ads. Now AI chat is a new thing, but be careful what you are asking for. Someone at some point will sell you stuff in chats for sure.
  7. mervyn

    TSM ... Taiwan Semiconductor

    Samsung is not even close. TSMC 5nm yield is 85% while Samsung 5nm yield is 35%, one and only very profitable chip foundry. Forget about Intel, it’s latest i9 is still on 10nm.
  8. mervyn

    Credit Suisse Investors Challenge Switzerland’s $17 Billion Bond Write-Down

    at1 is contingent-convertible "bond", not a traditional bond. i think thr at1 holders will get something back but probabaly not at par.
  9. mervyn

    China improves foreign market access to domestic bond market

    I don’t give a rat’s ass of what the politics are, just don’t mess up my long term positions, from Apple to JNJ. while keep a tab of news for short term trades, like gambling man would’ve done.
  10. mervyn

    China improves foreign market access to domestic bond market

    Chinese Telsa driver's data store inside China, pretty sure Chinese goverment won't allow the data to be shared with the US goverement. Didi for example, I shorted and made few grands out of the whole data security issue. I own shit load of TSLA so I hope Elon is smart enough not to play...
  11. mervyn

    How the FDIC Rigged the SVB Auction

    Very simple really, I am not a conspiracist. BX is too smart to partner with Valley National Bancorp to get into the door, and wants to carve out SVB's best assets and put a floor on SVB's underwater assets. In a bidding situation like a weekend, one doens't have time and enough information to...
  12. mervyn

    The effect of options expiration on index futures

    Call/put wall. When cash index is nearing a large volume node close to expiration, folks/computers will sell to close the position hence creating a selling pressure to bring the index down, not necessarily crash it. Most of the trades are done by mm. Position holders profits and losses have long...
  13. mervyn

    Tesla 2023

    barely over 165, made 25% closing out, rolled to 160 put next friday.
  14. mervyn

    Tesla 2023

    Don't think the oil will be at 50 ever again, regardless ev or anthing else.
  15. mervyn

    How the FDIC Rigged the SVB Auction

    Read the article carefully, Valley National Bancorp back by Blackstone was bidding.
  16. mervyn

    China improves foreign market access to domestic bond market

    I read somewhere John Bolton signed off the arrest. Everything is political theses days for global trades. I would not be surprised Elon Musk will be crashed if he gives Tesla driver data in China to US and vice versa...
  17. mervyn

    China improves foreign market access to domestic bond market

    Because you didn’t follow the big news. As I recalled HSBC gave DOJ some information regarding Huawai’s transactions with Iran, Bolton “kidnapped” Huawai founder’s daughter Meng in Vancouver airport. Don’t tell me the Chinese is easy to forgive, an eye for an eye, so to speak. Revenge is sweet...
  18. mervyn

    Tesla 2023

    Wood bought today, as expected. Ark ETFs also bought 256,000 Tesla shares.
  19. mervyn

    China improves foreign market access to domestic bond market

    not if we seize russian overseas assets first, including their central bank assets. yellen already admitted that sanctions put our options in a box, everyone is scared and de-dollars. tic for tac is scary move.
  20. mervyn

    China improves foreign market access to domestic bond market

    Obviously you don’t read or pay attention to news. Ping An Deepens HSBC Battle With Call for Strategic Review https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-18/ping-an-reiterates-need-for-hsbc-changes-blasts-bank-s-response
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